Abstract : D.1

Mathias Rotach, Marco Arpagaus
Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss

The MAP Forecast Demonstration Project D-PHASE focuses on the demonstration of, ability and improvement in forecasting (heavy) precipitation events and related flooding in the Alps. In that sense it covers high-resolution numerical modelling, ensemble forecasting, hydrological modelling and nowcasting based on radar techniques. The demonstration period of MAP D PHASE (DOP) is from June to November 2007, encompassing the ‘classical’ MAP period (September – November) as well as the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) observation programme (June – August). Thus at the time of ICAM the DOP has just begun.

We will illustrate on the example of the actual meteorological development what products and possibilities are available in the entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., the entire end-to-end flood forecasting system. First experience from the dry run as well as first results on high-resolution verification (that will be a major undertaking in the aftermath of the DOP) will be presented as well.