Abstract : 3N.15
Primary study of debris-flow forecast method in East side of Tibet Plateau

Hanzhong Feng, Lan Kang
chenj@cma.gov.cn
Chengdu Reginonal Meteorological Center,CMA

By means of the terrain slope, geology disaster dangerous degree, samples of debris-flow disaster in Sichuan, debris-flow hazard dangerous coefficient is constructed by statistical analysis, the relationship between debris-flow and daily precipitation during debris-flow happened is also analyzed. The result shows the occurrence of debris-flow has a close relationship with total precipitation over past two days, and the rainfall density is the key factor to trigger debris-flow. According to the result, the statistic is defined which connecting total precipitation and debris-flow hazard dangerous coefficient, then the critical discriminate statistic of debris-flow happened is obtained through analyzing the statistic of debris-flow examples, and by verifying the examples of debris-flow happened in 2004 and 2005, itís valuable for discriminating whether debris-flow happen or not.

Key word: Debris-flow Statistic Forecast method Study