Abstract : M.3
Flood forecasting in the upper Rhone river for the management of multireservoir systems

Frédéric Jordan, Jean-Louis Boillat, Javier Garcia Hernandez, Schleiss Anton J.
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale Lausanne

A semi-distributed hydrological model was developed for the upper Rhone River basin in Switzerland to provide 72 h lead time discharge forecasts for the optimization of a multireservoir system during floods. The model takes into account the presence of the multiple hydropower schemes as well as the different hydrological processes such as snow melt, glacier melt, soil infiltration and surface runoff.

The performance of the model is presented and correlated with the spatial distribution of the hydrological processes. Moreover, the assimilation of the meteorological forecasts provided in the MAP D-PHASE framework is presented and its performance for decision-making is assessed.

Special focus is put on the spatial and temporal scales of the meteorological and hydrological processes. The influence of the limited accuracy of quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts on the predicted discharges of basins with small to average surfaces up to several thousands km2 is discussed.