Predictability and observation targeting
Predictability is about understanding the sources of forecast errors,
and developing real time tools such as ensemble forecasting, to help
quantify the forecast uncertainty. Observation targeting is the development of
techniques that optimize the observing network in real time,
in order to maximimize the usefulness of forecasts. Both use similar techniques
for assessing the propagation of errors through the NWP data assimilation and
forecasting system. THORPEX is a related international project.
References
- Descamps, L. and O. Talagrand, 2006: On some aspect of the definition of
initial conditions for ensemble prediction. Accepted in Mon. Wea. Rev.
- Hello, G. and P. Arbogast, 2004: Two different methods to correct the initial
conditions applied to the storm of 27 December 1999 over southern France.
Meteorol.Appl., 11, pp. 41-57.
- Fourrié N., A. Doerenbecher, T. Bergot and A. Joly, 2002: Sensitivity
of the forecast to TOVS observations. Quart. Jour. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
128, pp. 2759-2777.
- Fourrié N., Marchal D., Rabier F., Chapnik B., and G. Desroziers, 2006 : Impact study of the 2003 North Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign. Quart. Jour. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
132, pp. 275-295.
- Bergot T., G. Hello, A. Joly and S. Malardel, 1999: Adaptive
observations: a feasibility study. Mon Wea. Rev., 127,
pp.743-765.
More specifically about predictability in mesoscale limited-area models:
- Soci, C., C. Fischer and A. Horanyi, 2006: Sensitivity of high resolution
forecasts using the adjoint technique at the 10km scale. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
134, pp.772-790.
- Stefanescu, S. E., L. Berre and M. Belo Pereira, 2006: The evolution of
dispersion spectra and the evaluation of model differences in an ensemble
estimation of error statistics for a limited area analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
134, pp.3456-3478.
- Belo Pereira, M. and L. Berre, 2006: The use of an ensemble approach to study
the background error covariance in a global NWP model. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
134, pp.2466-2489.
- Berre L., S. E. Stefanescu and M. Belo Pereira, 2006: The representation
of the analysis in three error simulation techniques. Tellus 58A,
pp.196-209.