ALATNET Joint Programme of Work

The Principal Contractor and the Members are referred to jointly as «the Participants».»

• P1 : Météo-France,
• P2: IRMB,
• P3: CHMI,
• P4: HMS,
• P5: HIMS.

1. Project Objectives

2. Research Method

3. Work Plan

4. Organisation and management

5. Training

1. Project Objectives

The main objective of the ALATNET research effort is t o build the ALADIN Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system up to a state where it can treat at the required level the dynamics and physics of atmospheric phenomena at wave lengths down to 10 km and where it can assimilate in continuous and balanced mode all relevant data for the prediction of extreme weather events at those scales, without losing any of the generic properties of the international common effort that made up to now the work on ALADIN truly multi-beneficial while rights vs. duties fully aware .

The other research objectives are the following:

• Theoretical aspects of non-hydrostatism (NH), a feature necessary to go below 15 km wave lengths;
• Case studies aspects of NH;
• Noise control in high resolution dynamics;
• Removal of the thin layer hypothesis, i.e. inclusion of the vertical unbalanced part of Coriolis forces;
• Coupling with the larger scale models and associated high resolution modes;
• Specific coupling problems, mainly of NWP-strategy type;
• Reformulation of the physics-dynamics interface;
• Adaptation of physics to higher resolution;
• Design of new physical parameterisations for phenomena unimportant at longer time scales;
• Use of new observations in the data assimilation procedures leading to the model's initial state;
• 3D-Var analysis and other variational applications;
• 4D-Var (i.e. fully continuous) data assimilation.

2. Research Method

The following is the methodology which will be employed (slight variations may occur):

• to continuously gather potential input for the work from several sources: results of upstream research (either in-house or published) in all possible related fields (experimental, computational or analytical), theoretical and/or numerical analysis of the encountered NWP problems and return of operational experience with the code one wants to upgrade;
• to convert this input into the analysis of an approach feasible under the severe constraints of NWP: speed, reliability, generality, modularity, flexibility, ...
• to develop (usually under relaxed conditions for a first quick-look) a prototype problem and the coded application of the chosen idea to this problem;
• to assess the obtained results and to decide whether or not the idea is worth pursuing (if «not», especially in case of a blocking problem, one is sent back to stage zero of the described process);
• in case of continuation of the effort, the likely interactions with all other aspects of the complex NWP software ensemble have to be carefully scrutinised and consequences for the envisaged full development to be taken into account at that stage;
• to make the development effort, with a view on operational implementation, but at minimum in order to create a clean option that might become useful even if only at a later stage;
• to start a complex validation process that aims at verifying the fulfilment of the basic aims of the work and the promises of the prototype tests while drifting towards real cases of interest for NWP; the danger of a wrong ratio of false alarms vs. missed events and the need to work under several meteorological conditions (seasons, active or stable situations, highly predictable as well as very sensitive events, ...) have to be taken into account as much as technically feasible;
• if possible, at that stage, even for changes limited to the pure model part of the code, the data assimilation aspects should be part of the process owing to their capacity to detect slowly accumulating effects (the combination of short forecasts leading to each new analysis step creates a long model integration perturbed by the corrections towards observed values but nevertheless able to exhibit some characteristics of the model's long term behaviour);
• in case of success of this validation procedure (most of the time at the price of several new tuning efforts) one has to decide whether the created option is ready for a potential operational implementation or whether it should be kept waiting for other circumstances (more computing power, more central memory, other necessary items to form a coherent package for implementation, ...); in the second case, publicising the results of the study is of paramount importance since all other new developments and/or basic research effort should at least consider the question whether or not to activate this option; given the complexity and the distributed type of work associated with ALADIN this is one of the most difficult tasks of the project;
• in the first case, one reaches the stage of parallel testing in which the chosen option (or a combination of several of them when one thinks that their effects are either additive or non-interacting) is put as sole modification with respect to the current operational application and tested in real time and comparatively verified against the weather that happens a few hours or days afterwards; here success means introduction into the operational procedure and failure a return to one on the intermediate steps of the procedure (which one depends on the gravity of the arguments that lead to the decision not to implement).

This NWP specific method is born out of three facts :

• First, meteorologists do not have any controlled laboratory: the atmosphere is their only «truth» and it never passes twice through the same state at any place. Hence a model is not only a forecasting tool but also a proxy laboratory for experimentation of new ideas that otherwise cannot be put to any acid test. While this concept leads to a study of the models for understanding their behaviour nearly as much as that of the atmosphere in upstream research, in the case of research for NWP it introduces the above-mentioned complex hierarchy of testing procedures.
• Second, the need to only consider applications that can be run without ever diverging or failing and at a speed characterised by the rule of thumb «one minute of elapse time for one hour of simulation» introduces constraints that need to be taken into account at a quite early stage of the process, something unknown in many other scientific activities.
• Third, the atmospheric behaviour is chaotic and its modelling reflects this fact through very non-linear characteristics. The truth about the validity of any assumption or tuning choice is thus very delicate to capture and may require an enormous amount of computing power (until statistical significance is reached) but for the design of rather sophisticated multi-stage validation protocols that aim at avoiding non-linearly induced pitfalls.

3. Work Plan

Each of the 12 work items is under the responsibility of one Participant (bold face P1 (Météo-France), P2 (IRM), P3 (CHMI), P4 (HMS) & P5 (MIMS), in the Table below); items are split and each sub-item gets an anticipated duration [start;end] in years since the start of the networking (in subdivision of quarters, underlined figures), as well as an indication of the main cross implication of other Participants (italic P1, P2, P3, P4 & P5), when appropriate. Intermediate milestones are synthesised. Since there are still many uncertainties associated with the execution of such a complex programme over a four year period, details of the Table should be taken only as indications, while main itemised objectives and synthetic aspects of the milestones are committing the Participants, together of course with the above mentioned global objective.

1. Theoretical aspects of non-hydrostatism (NH) P3
1a: Development of the vertical plane version of ALADIN, as a powerful and cheap tool for further studies in dynamics (forecast configuration, creation of initial and boundary conditions from real 3d or idealized situations, reference simulations, output interface) [0.;1.] P1
1b: Refinement and test (2d then 3d models) of a radiative upper boundary condition for hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic dynamics [0.;2. ] P1
1c: Improvement of the lower boundary condition (analysis, test in 2d then 3d models) [1.;3.] P1 & P4
1d: Problems not yet identified [2.75;4.] P1, P2, P4 & P5

2. Case studies aspects of NH P5
2a: Definition of the framework of experiments (domains, resolutions), choice of a set of reference situations [0.;0.75]
2b: Validation of the current physics and non-hydrostatic dynamics : comparison to hydrostatic dynamics, to observations, identifying problems [ 0.25;1.5]
2c: Solving residual instability problems in the two-time-level semi-Lagrangian advection scheme (so as to enable larger time-steps and a correspondingly lower computing cost) [1.;3.] P1 & P3
2d: Validation of the new developments in dynamics (upper and lower boundary conditions, noise control) or coupling [1.75;4.] P3 & P4
2e: Validation of the refinements in physics, identifying feed-backs and residual problems [0.75;4.] P1 & P2

3. Noise control in high resolution dynamics P3
3a: Further damping of orographic resonance in semi-Lagrangian advection [ 0.;2.] P1
3b: Improved use of the damping properties of a decentered semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian advection scheme [1.;2.] P1

4. Removal of the thin layer hypothesis P1
4a: Analysis of the required modifications and coding [2.;3. ]
4b: Impact studies in the vertical plane model then on real cases [3. ;4.] P3

5. Coupling and high resolution modes P5
5a: Bi-directional coupling in spectral mode [0.75;3.75] P1, P3 & P4
5b: Well posed lateral coupling in NH mode [1.25;4.] P1
5c: Problems of jump in resolution and of domain sizes in modeling and data assimilation modes [0.;4.] P3 & P4

6. Specific coupling problems P3
6a: Blending of fields in data assimilation for preserving high resolution forecast details [0.;2.] P1
6b: Tendency coupling for surface pressure and other technical variations around Davies' technique of field coupling in a buffer zone [1.; 4.] P4 & P5
6c: Coupling problems in variational data assimilation [0.;1.25 ] P1

7. Reformulation of the physics-dynamics interface P2
7a: Study of the interactions between non-hydrostatic features and physical parameterisations [1.;3.25] P1 & P3
7b: Analysis of the problems related to a 1-dimensional physics, impact of an exact introduction of diabatic forcing [3.;4.] P1 & P5
7c: Sensitivity of the physics/dynamics interface to vertical resolution [ 0.;2.] P3

8. Adaptation of physics to higher resolution P2
8a: Parameterisation of the small-scale features of convection [0.; 1.25] P1
8b: Test, retuning and improvement of the various physical parameterisation in the framework of a very high resolution [0.75;3.75] P5
8c: Improved representation of boundary layer (diagnostic mixing length) [ 1.25;3.25] P1
8d: Introduction of slope effects [3.;4.] P5

9. Design of new physical parameterisations P1
9a: Implementation of a new parameterisation of turbulence (Turbulent Kinetic Energy scheme) [0.;3.] P5
9b: Use of liquid water and ice as prognostic variables, implementation of a new microphysics parameterisation [0.;2.] P3
9c: New parameterisation of exchanges at lakes surface [0.;1.25 ] P4
9d: Improved representation of exchanges at sea surface [0.;1.25 ] P2
9e: Improved representation of land surface, including the impact of vegetation and snow [2.25;4.] P2, P4 & P5

10. Use of new observations (creation of local databases, control, development of pre-processing tools and whenever required observation operators, impact studies) P1
10a: Yet unused SYNOP observations [0.;1.25] P2, P3, P4 & P5
10b: GPS and/or MSG observations [1.;3.]
10c: Doppler radar observations [2.25;4.] P3 & P4
10d: METOP (IASI) observations [3.;4.] P4

11. 3D-Var analysis and variational applications P4
11a: Definition and calculation of new background error statistics, impact of domain resolution and extension [0.;1.] P1 & P3
11b: Scientific investigation of the decremental approach : identification of relevant scales for variational assimilation, coding and validation of a scale selection procedure [0.;1.25] P1
11c: Management of observations in 3d-var: from academic single-observation experiments to the use of any available data [0.,2.] P1 & P3
11d: Intensive scientific validation and improvement of 3D-Var [1.; 3.] P1 & P3
11e: Development of variational type applications (adjoint methods for sensitivity studies), as a project itself and to provide more insight into the coupling problem for 4d-Var [1.25;4.] P1

12. 4D-Var assimilation P1
12a: Basic validation and tests [1.25;4.] P3 & P4
12b: Definition of a coupling strategy [2.25;4.] P4 & P5
12c: Scientific validation [2.25;4.] P2, P3, P4 & P5
12d: Improvement of the treatment of humidity in data assimilation [2. ;4.] P2, P3, P4 & P5

Schedule and Milestones

The schedule can easily be extracted from the above detailed work plan. There are obviously three intermediate milestones, the first one being slightly shifted in time to allow for some start-up period:

• After one year and a quarter:
  * non-hydrostatic «reference version» of ALADIN at high resolution (with a «state of the art» parameterisation set) ready and tested on a few cases;
  * ALADIN 3D-Var data assimilation ready for first parallel testing;
  * validation of a first set of «new observation operators» started.

• After two years (Mid-Term Review):
  * completion of an intensive validation of the «reference version» with an appropriate coupling strategy;
  * basic version of 4D-Var ALADIN data assimilation ready.

• After three years:
  * operational implementation(s) of an update of the «reference version»;
  * consistent data assimilation ensemble (O/I, 3D-Var, 4D-Var) in ALADIN ready for operational implementation up to 3D-Var;
  * well defined strategy for the handling of humidity in 4D-Var at fine scales available.

• After four years (Final Review):
  * completion of the whole programme.

Research effort of the Participants

4. Organisation and management

ALATNET will be organised and managed as a separately identified but parallel component to the ALADIN project that currently allows the shared development of a mixed (research and operational) state of the art limited area NWP system by 14 Partner National Meteorological Services (NMSs) (AU, B, BG, CZ, F, HR, HU, MA, MD, P, PL, RO, SI, SK).

ALATNET will be managed by three bodies:

• as main managing entity, a 6 person working group (the co-ordinator and one representative of each Participant) that will deal with preparation (candidates' selection for Young Researchers positions, calendar of cross-network and individual training actions, common planning of contributions to workshops, ...) and supervision (scientific results, return of experience of important training actions, links with the academic side of PhD's supervision, ...) of all specific ALATNET steps;
• a technical working group (3 people, the 3 ALATNET participants of the RC-LACE ALADIN subgroup -AU, CZ, HR, HU, SI & SK- that jointly operates one particular ALADIN version in Prague obviously needing only a single representation in this entity) that will deal with all ALADIN code-related problems having an impact on ALATNET actions (evolution, maintenance, phasing, ...);
• as «political» bridge with ALADIN at the NMS level, a «reduced attendance session» (for FR, BE, CZ, HU & SI only) of the Assembly of ALADIN Partners (that meets once a year) in order (i) to verify the correct articulation between the ALATNET scientific effort and the ALADIN broad technical constraints and (ii) to evaluate how the ALATNET training effort can best serve the European SRNWP action and the ALADIN position inside the latter; the relevant process will be initiated and validated at the forthcoming Assembly in Lisbon.

Communication means (quarterly Newsletters, Web-site, hot-line and general-purpose e-mail lists) will be used to ensure the quickest possible circulation of the ALATNET information, either by profiting of a similar ALADIN facility or, whenever necessary to ensure a clear distinction between the two actions, by creating and maintaining a specific ALATNET functionality. In particular an ALATNET web-site will be activated in Toulouse with cross links with the equivalent SRNWP and ALADIN ones.

Like for the work around the ALADIN code, there will be a small data base maintained in Toulouse and registering all ALATNET-linked work in the Participants' institutions, according to the following classification for Young Researchers' stays and networking cross-visits: received training, validation work, research work, maintenance, link with operational activities, given training, administration. This will allow a good monitoring of ALATNET's progress according to its specific constraints (time table of Young Researchers' stays, coordination of special training actions, planning and recording of networking visits, ...).

The dissemination of the results of the ALATNET action will follow the usual channels of any European NWP project:

• introduction in the common code of all well proven techniques, mainly for operational applications and/or further research;
• publication in the relevant scientific journals;
• internal communication (Newsletter, Web-site, Presentations during the ALADIN workshops, ...);
• presentation in international NWP type conferences (especially the annual EWGLAM/SRNWP meeting and the specialised SRNWP workshops);
• and, hopefully, seven PhD manuscripts!

5 Training

Appointment of Young Researchers

«The minimum overall total of young researchers whose employment will be financed by the contract will be 224 person-months (78 for Météo-France in Toulouse, 38 for IRM in Brussels, 46 for CHMI in Prague, 24 for HMS in Budapest and 38 for HMIS in Ljubljana)»

The vacancies associated with the training plan will be published mainly in four directions:

• - through the usual channels of communication around the ALADIN NWP system (Newsletter, Web-site, e-mail list, ...);
• - by enlarging the call to the whole of the European NWP community through the channel of the SRNWP network (between the HIRLAM, COSMO, UM and ALADIN groups, all four having similar aims and structures and representing the spearhead of European Short Range NWP activities in the international competition) under the umbrella of EUMETNET, the common programme of joint actions of NMSs at the European level;
• - through contacts in the academic world of all ALADIN participating NMSs, especially those of the network Participants;
• - through the official communication channel of the ALATNET Participant NMSs (Web-sites in first instance).

Besides the scientific information about ALATNET and the general conditions of the RTN programme (age and nationality constraints), the vacancies' announcements will contain roughly the following information about the structure of the training:

«There will be both Pre-Doc and Post-Doc ALATNET opportunities financed on a EU 5^th Programme called «Research Training Network» for four years (approximately 2000-2003) and the call for candidacy extends to all EU and eligible associated states. The five centres where the stays have to be completed are Toulouse, Brussels, Prague, Budapest and Ljubljana. There is a volume of 224 person x months of Young Researchers' employment to be financed and the following table can be used as a preliminary overview of the ALATNET training plan.

There will therefore be 13 vacancies (7 starting in 2000 and 6 in 2001) with varying degrees of length (the contracts do not have to be continuous, the expected average length of stays is 9 months and, at least for the PhD students at Météo-France where such a system officially exists through «Université Paul Sabatier», we are going to encourage relying on the co-tutelle system of shared studies between home and the ALATNET centres).»

All Participants will ensure a policy of equal opportunities for male and female scientists both in the selection process of Young Researchers and in the participation to other ALATNET networking activities.

Training Programme

The training aims of the ALATNET programme are connected with scientific, operational and organisational objectives linked to the ALADIN code. The choice of the PhD and Post-doc scientific subjects will take into account the associated constraints (mainly to avoid duplication of efforts), the specificity of the ALATNET research plan, the need to introduce some progression in the work of Young Researchers among the galaxy of NWP related actions (cf. Section 2) and the possibility to interact with either permanent staff or with visitors on shorter stays (from other network Participants) that will also contribute to the realisation of the research objectives. Finally it will be tuned to the researcher's previous background once the position has been filled.

The other choices to be made in view of specific ALATNET training actions will mostly depend on how the recruited Young Researchers will already be familiar or not with the NWP methodology detailed in Section 2. Specific tutorial by experienced staff will be systematically arranged whenever some lacks will be detected for any recruit and for any of the methodological steps.

Some simple measures will be taken to ensure the widest possible approach to «academic training» for the chosen candidates on the Young Researchers appointments linked with ALATNET: enforced contacts with the academic supervisors on one hand and a staged approach to presentation of the research results (internal informal intermediate reports, active participation to ALADIN workshops and then to SRNWP similar activities, presentation at open scientific conferences is the normal gradation) on the other hand.

There will also be a need for «awareness to real weather» specific actions for those of the Young Researchers with small or little background in operational weather forecasting (an activity that strongly relies on NWP, even if not exclusively). This will easily be achieved by some short period immersion stays in the day-to-day routine of operational forecasting in any of the five NMSs of the ALATNET Participants.

The European NWP regular communication activities (two specialised ALADIN workshops every year, participation to all SRNWP activities and contact with the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts) will be complemented by two special ALATNET efforts in the first half of the contract: an intensive seminar on the subject «high resolution modelling» to be held in Prague and one newcomer training course in Toulouse. The latter effort may be repeated at a later stage of the ALATNET life, if requested.

Given all this it is impossible to objectively separate the individual and cross-network parts of the training. One may simply say that the latter is really a condition of success of the former and has never been neglected in previous ALADIN training efforts.

Even if NWP activities are a rather internal business since they encompass their own «industry» (i.e. the production of daily operational weather forecasts, mainly for public service aims and for regulated aeronautical forecast procedures), there are nevertheless direct industrial users of NWP products, most of the time as input to models of cost/benefit type for weather dependent activities (energy production/consumption, continental and maritime transports, agriculture, season dependent commercial business, out-door sporting events, ...). Knowledge of the intrinsic mechanisms of NWP is a distinct advantage when working on the external use of its products; in so far, ALATNET might become a valuable training for non-NMS future activities of some of its Young Researchers, even if this is not the primary aim of the planned effort.