World |
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
5262 |
6091 |
6891 |
7672 |
8372 |
8930 |
9367 |
9704 |
9960 |
10158 |
10306 |
10414 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
20,9 |
28,3 |
38,6 |
50,7 |
66,0 |
85,5 |
109,5 |
134,8 |
161,5 |
186,3 |
210,3 |
234,9 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
25,7 |
34,8 |
46,9 |
60,2 |
75,5 |
93,2 |
113,9 |
136,8 |
160,7 |
183,8 |
207,4 |
231,8 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
38 |
27 |
27 |
24 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
|
|
Solids |
|
42 |
47 |
40 |
36 |
29 |
30 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
7 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
111 |
134 |
167 |
200 |
236 |
255 |
268 |
273 |
267 |
270 |
289 |
294 |
|
|
Gas |
|
41 |
46 |
50 |
59 |
70 |
86 |
105 |
119 |
130 |
130 |
118 |
111 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
35 |
47 |
62 |
85 |
113 |
150 |
188 |
227 |
272 |
321 |
366 |
409 |
|
|
Others |
|
8 |
11 |
17 |
25 |
41 |
51 |
63 |
78 |
90 |
104 |
116 |
123 |
|
|
Total |
|
275 |
311 |
362 |
429 |
507 |
586 |
654 |
723 |
783 |
848 |
909 |
951 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
91 |
91 |
98 |
98 |
96 |
93 |
86 |
91 |
119 |
170 |
231 |
300 |
|
|
Oil |
|
128 |
168 |
195 |
214 |
240 |
238 |
227 |
201 |
146 |
101 |
72 |
52 |
|
|
Gas |
|
71 |
84 |
107 |
150 |
194 |
251 |
297 |
356 |
390 |
402 |
385 |
336 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
7 |
8 |
11 |
16 |
23 |
32 |
48 |
61 |
83 |
99 |
120 |
142 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
46 |
43 |
46 |
53 |
61 |
79 |
105 |
136 |
184 |
236 |
280 |
315 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
8 |
14 |
22 |
34 |
54 |
80 |
107 |
131 |
153 |
176 |
197 |
212 |
|
|
Total |
|
352 |
408 |
479 |
566 |
667 |
773 |
869 |
976 |
1074 |
1184 |
1285 |
1357 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,9 |
1,8 |
2,8 |
3,8 |
4,7 |
5,7 |
6,5 |
7,4 |
8,6 |
10,3 |
12,6 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
1,4 |
3,1 |
5,1 |
7,2 |
9,6 |
12,0 |
14,3 |
16,3 |
17,7 |
18,7 |
19,5 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,7 |
1,6 |
2,7 |
4,2 |
6,1 |
8,6 |
11,6 |
15,1 |
19,0 |
23,1 |
26,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
75,3 |
159,1 |
248,3 |
343,0 |
446,0 |
554,5 |
667,0 |
782,5 |
901,4 |
1026,1 |
1156,7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B2 run |
|
Cropland |
|
1459 |
1481 |
1510 |
1540 |
1570 |
1598 |
1626 |
1656 |
1687 |
1718 |
1751 |
1784 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
3389 |
3409 |
3436 |
3454 |
3473 |
3508 |
3543 |
3577 |
3611 |
3641 |
3668 |
3696 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
92 |
190 |
288 |
313 |
338 |
342 |
325 |
307 |
|
|
Forest |
|
4296 |
4252 |
4225 |
4251 |
4292 |
4323 |
4353 |
4380 |
4407 |
4441 |
4482 |
4522 |
|
|
Others |
|
3805 |
3806 |
3778 |
3690 |
3522 |
3330 |
3139 |
3023 |
2907 |
2807 |
2723 |
2639 |
|
|
Total |
|
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
5,99 |
6,90 |
7,99 |
9,02 |
10,15 |
10,93 |
11,23 |
11,74 |
11,87 |
12,46 |
13,20 |
13,82 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
1,11 |
1,07 |
0,80 |
0,03 |
-0,25 |
-0,24 |
-0,23 |
-0,24 |
-0,25 |
-0,31 |
-0,41 |
-0,50 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
7,10 |
7,97 |
8,78 |
9,05 |
9,90 |
10,69 |
11,01 |
11,49 |
11,62 |
12,15 |
12,79 |
13,32 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
310 |
323 |
349 |
384 |
426 |
466 |
504 |
522 |
544 |
566 |
579 |
597 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
6,7 |
7,0 |
6,2 |
6,1 |
6,1 |
6,2 |
6,3 |
6,4 |
6,6 |
6,7 |
6,8 |
6,9 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
70,9 |
69,0 |
65,9 |
61,3 |
60,3 |
59,0 |
55,7 |
53,8 |
50,9 |
50,0 |
49,0 |
47,9 |
|
|
CFC/HFC/HCFC |
MtC eq. |
1672 |
883 |
786 |
299 |
272 |
315 |
346 |
413 |
483 |
548 |
603 |
649 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
32 |
25 |
42 |
55 |
70 |
88 |
107 |
120 |
128 |
130 |
127 |
121 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
38 |
40 |
48 |
55 |
60 |
76 |
79 |
80 |
74 |
63 |
65 |
69 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
879 |
877 |
935 |
1022 |
1111 |
1220 |
1319 |
1423 |
1570 |
1742 |
1886 |
2002 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
139 |
141 |
159 |
180 |
199 |
214 |
217 |
214 |
202 |
192 |
178 |
170 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
31 |
32 |
37 |
43 |
49 |
53 |
54 |
56 |
56 |
59 |
61 |
61 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B2 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
OECD90 |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
859 |
916 |
953 |
982 |
994 |
988 |
976 |
965 |
951 |
941 |
934 |
928 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
16,4 |
21,1 |
26,5 |
30,3 |
33,1 |
35,8 |
38,3 |
40,9 |
44,4 |
47,9 |
52,0 |
56,6 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
14,1 |
18,3 |
23,0 |
26,3 |
28,8 |
31,3 |
33,5 |
35,9 |
39,2 |
42,4 |
46,1 |
50,4 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
13 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
66 |
71 |
79 |
86 |
92 |
88 |
76 |
68 |
64 |
60 |
60 |
58 |
|
|
Gas |
|
22 |
24 |
26 |
25 |
27 |
31 |
35 |
38 |
34 |
29 |
24 |
17 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
22 |
29 |
36 |
44 |
50 |
56 |
61 |
65 |
71 |
76 |
83 |
89 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
Total |
|
124 |
133 |
146 |
162 |
177 |
183 |
182 |
183 |
183 |
182 |
184 |
182 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
38 |
34 |
36 |
39 |
33 |
24 |
20 |
19 |
23 |
26 |
29 |
34 |
|
|
Oil |
|
72 |
86 |
91 |
90 |
90 |
81 |
65 |
54 |
42 |
30 |
23 |
17 |
|
|
Gas |
|
33 |
41 |
50 |
61 |
71 |
86 |
99 |
114 |
113 |
123 |
127 |
121 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
21 |
21 |
25 |
29 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
6 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
15 |
22 |
28 |
31 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
4 |
5 |
8 |
11 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
29 |
33 |
36 |
39 |
41 |
|
|
Total |
|
159 |
180 |
200 |
219 |
230 |
234 |
236 |
248 |
253 |
265 |
273 |
274 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,7 |
1,1 |
1,5 |
1,8 |
2,0 |
2,2 |
2,4 |
2,6 |
2,9 |
3,3 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,7 |
2,6 |
3,5 |
4,4 |
5,2 |
5,8 |
6,4 |
6,8 |
7,1 |
7,3 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,8 |
1,3 |
1,9 |
2,6 |
3,4 |
4,3 |
5,4 |
6,6 |
7,8 |
9,2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
30,1 |
63,5 |
99,1 |
135,5 |
170,8 |
204,1 |
236,1 |
267,0 |
297,0 |
326,8 |
356,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B2 run |
|
Cropland |
|
381 |
384 |
391 |
398 |
406 |
411 |
417 |
423 |
429 |
435 |
442 |
449 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
760 |
764 |
770 |
773 |
776 |
787 |
798 |
812 |
826 |
838 |
849 |
860 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
17 |
36 |
54 |
59 |
64 |
64 |
61 |
58 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1050 |
1059 |
1069 |
1082 |
1095 |
1104 |
1113 |
1125 |
1136 |
1151 |
1171 |
1190 |
|
|
Others |
|
838 |
822 |
799 |
774 |
734 |
691 |
647 |
611 |
575 |
540 |
506 |
471 |
|
|
Total |
|
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,50 |
3,71 |
3,70 |
3,51 |
3,26 |
3,25 |
3,08 |
3,10 |
3,14 |
3,10 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,02 |
-0,06 |
-0,08 |
-0,06 |
-0,05 |
-0,06 |
-0,08 |
-0,11 |
-0,15 |
-0,19 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,48 |
3,64 |
3,62 |
3,45 |
3,22 |
3,19 |
2,99 |
2,99 |
2,98 |
2,91 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
73 |
74 |
72 |
71 |
68 |
67 |
69 |
69 |
70 |
72 |
75 |
78 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,5 |
2,4 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
22,7 |
17,0 |
11,3 |
6,7 |
5,7 |
4,9 |
4,1 |
3,7 |
3,4 |
3,3 |
3,3 |
3,5 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
19 |
57 |
105 |
99 |
102 |
101 |
102 |
101 |
100 |
98 |
98 |
97 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
18 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
24 |
23 |
25 |
23 |
17 |
13 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
179 |
161 |
163 |
173 |
180 |
187 |
185 |
185 |
195 |
213 |
207 |
197 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
42 |
36 |
37 |
39 |
42 |
45 |
43 |
41 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
30 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
13 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B2 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
REF |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
413 |
415 |
417 |
418 |
416 |
411 |
406 |
396 |
389 |
384 |
381 |
379 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,1 |
1,0 |
1,2 |
1,8 |
2,8 |
4,5 |
6,6 |
8,6 |
10,5 |
11,9 |
13,2 |
14,5 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,7 |
3,3 |
4,3 |
5,6 |
7,2 |
9,5 |
11,6 |
13,3 |
14,8 |
16,2 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
9 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
15 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
|
|
Gas |
|
14 |
14 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
12 |
10 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
24 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
|
|
Others |
|
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
|
|
Total |
|
50 |
45 |
44 |
49 |
55 |
63 |
68 |
71 |
73 |
76 |
78 |
79 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
19 |
15 |
11 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
8 |
11 |
15 |
21 |
29 |
|
|
Oil |
|
20 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
16 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
|
|
Gas |
|
27 |
26 |
24 |
31 |
38 |
49 |
51 |
59 |
66 |
63 |
52 |
43 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
|
|
Total |
|
70 |
62 |
57 |
62 |
73 |
86 |
97 |
102 |
111 |
117 |
119 |
125 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,7 |
0,8 |
0,9 |
1,1 |
1,3 |
1,5 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,6 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
1,1 |
1,3 |
1,5 |
1,6 |
1,6 |
1,6 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,8 |
1,1 |
1,5 |
2,0 |
2,5 |
3,2 |
3,9 |
4,6 |
5,2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
11,0 |
19,5 |
26,7 |
33,8 |
42,9 |
54,0 |
65,7 |
77,4 |
89,4 |
101,2 |
112,8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B2 run |
|
Cropland |
|
268 |
269 |
274 |
280 |
285 |
291 |
296 |
302 |
308 |
314 |
320 |
327 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
341 |
362 |
366 |
368 |
370 |
373 |
377 |
380 |
383 |
386 |
389 |
392 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
Forest |
|
966 |
951 |
939 |
944 |
947 |
944 |
941 |
940 |
939 |
941 |
945 |
949 |
|
|
Others |
|
701 |
693 |
697 |
683 |
668 |
656 |
644 |
634 |
624 |
613 |
601 |
589 |
|
|
Total |
|
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,80 |
0,81 |
0,94 |
1,11 |
1,24 |
1,18 |
1,22 |
1,24 |
1,21 |
1,18 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,01 |
-0,18 |
-0,14 |
-0,09 |
-0,04 |
-0,04 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,04 |
-0,04 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,79 |
0,63 |
0,80 |
1,02 |
1,20 |
1,15 |
1,19 |
1,21 |
1,17 |
1,14 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
47 |
39 |
36 |
40 |
45 |
50 |
53 |
50 |
47 |
47 |
46 |
47 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,0 |
11,0 |
7,1 |
3,5 |
1,6 |
1,3 |
2,9 |
2,8 |
2,9 |
3,1 |
3,4 |
3,6 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
4 |
9 |
15 |
21 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
7 |
4 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
19 |
25 |
28 |
30 |
30 |
28 |
27 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
7 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
69 |
41 |
43 |
48 |
59 |
69 |
74 |
73 |
68 |
72 |
70 |
79 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
16 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
21 |
28 |
32 |
31 |
30 |
30 |
27 |
26 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B2 land-use data |
|
|
ASIA |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
2798 |
3248 |
3649 |
4008 |
4312 |
4538 |
4696 |
4790 |
4856 |
4902 |
4938 |
4968 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,5 |
3,5 |
7,2 |
13,2 |
21,3 |
30,7 |
41,8 |
52,7 |
64,1 |
75,0 |
85,8 |
97,1 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
5,3 |
9,3 |
15,1 |
22,4 |
30,7 |
39,3 |
49,3 |
59,0 |
68,7 |
78,5 |
89,2 |
100,4 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
24 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
Solids |
|
19 |
30 |
29 |
28 |
24 |
25 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
2 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
13 |
26 |
41 |
60 |
81 |
96 |
112 |
117 |
109 |
107 |
114 |
122 |
|
|
Gas |
|
2 |
3 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
18 |
22 |
30 |
38 |
37 |
34 |
33 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
4 |
8 |
14 |
24 |
37 |
53 |
70 |
87 |
108 |
131 |
151 |
169 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
3 |
7 |
10 |
16 |
20 |
25 |
31 |
35 |
43 |
51 |
55 |
|
|
Total |
|
62 |
86 |
111 |
144 |
181 |
220 |
252 |
284 |
308 |
335 |
363 |
385 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
30 |
38 |
47 |
47 |
48 |
53 |
48 |
56 |
71 |
105 |
144 |
180 |
|
|
Oil |
|
15 |
32 |
45 |
63 |
82 |
88 |
93 |
82 |
61 |
41 |
27 |
21 |
|
|
Gas |
|
3 |
6 |
16 |
31 |
43 |
55 |
61 |
72 |
79 |
66 |
51 |
39 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
13 |
21 |
29 |
38 |
47 |
56 |
65 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
24 |
22 |
25 |
28 |
32 |
41 |
54 |
68 |
88 |
109 |
123 |
129 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
21 |
31 |
43 |
52 |
61 |
71 |
81 |
88 |
|
|
Total |
|
74 |
103 |
141 |
185 |
233 |
281 |
319 |
359 |
397 |
439 |
482 |
521 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,7 |
1,2 |
1,7 |
2,1 |
2,7 |
3,1 |
3,7 |
4,3 |
5,3 |
6,7 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
1,0 |
1,6 |
2,4 |
3,3 |
4,2 |
5,0 |
5,6 |
6,1 |
6,3 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
1,0 |
1,5 |
2,1 |
2,7 |
3,4 |
4,0 |
4,5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
17,8 |
41,1 |
68,5 |
100,2 |
137,4 |
177,8 |
219,4 |
261,8 |
305,7 |
353,4 |
406,7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B2 run |
|
Cropland |
|
438 |
439 |
448 |
457 |
466 |
475 |
484 |
494 |
504 |
514 |
524 |
535 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
608 |
607 |
611 |
615 |
618 |
623 |
627 |
632 |
636 |
640 |
644 |
647 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
21 |
43 |
65 |
70 |
76 |
77 |
73 |
69 |
|
|
Forest |
|
535 |
525 |
518 |
533 |
548 |
553 |
558 |
563 |
567 |
571 |
575 |
580 |
|
|
Others |
|
583 |
593 |
587 |
557 |
512 |
471 |
430 |
406 |
382 |
362 |
348 |
333 |
|
|
Total |
|
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,15 |
1,78 |
2,42 |
3,02 |
3,62 |
4,07 |
4,12 |
4,26 |
4,30 |
4,57 |
5,07 |
5,69 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,37 |
0,26 |
0,20 |
-0,15 |
-0,16 |
-0,09 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,04 |
-0,05 |
-0,05 |
-0,06 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,53 |
2,03 |
2,62 |
2,87 |
3,46 |
3,98 |
4,10 |
4,22 |
4,26 |
4,53 |
5,01 |
5,63 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
113 |
125 |
146 |
171 |
201 |
219 |
234 |
241 |
251 |
260 |
265 |
272 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,3 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,7 |
2,8 |
2,8 |
2,9 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,7 |
25,3 |
30,1 |
32,9 |
33,3 |
32,0 |
26,4 |
24,3 |
22,1 |
21,5 |
21,3 |
20,6 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
5 |
21 |
40 |
66 |
95 |
130 |
164 |
199 |
233 |
267 |
302 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
14 |
22 |
30 |
38 |
46 |
51 |
54 |
54 |
53 |
51 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
4 |
7 |
12 |
18 |
25 |
32 |
36 |
36 |
33 |
27 |
29 |
30 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
235 |
270 |
314 |
375 |
428 |
472 |
518 |
549 |
579 |
598 |
617 |
651 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
33 |
37 |
44 |
53 |
59 |
60 |
59 |
56 |
52 |
45 |
41 |
39 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
9 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
24 |
26 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B2 land-use data |
|
|
ALM |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
1192 |
1511 |
1872 |
2263 |
2649 |
2992 |
3289 |
3554 |
3764 |
3931 |
4053 |
4139 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,9 |
2,7 |
3,7 |
5,5 |
8,8 |
14,6 |
22,8 |
32,6 |
42,6 |
51,4 |
59,3 |
66,8 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
3,8 |
4,9 |
6,2 |
8,2 |
11,7 |
17,0 |
23,9 |
32,4 |
41,2 |
49,6 |
57,2 |
64,9 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
14 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Solids |
|
1 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
17 |
23 |
30 |
37 |
46 |
53 |
61 |
71 |
76 |
83 |
95 |
93 |
|
|
Gas |
|
4 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
19 |
28 |
34 |
42 |
48 |
48 |
52 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
3 |
5 |
7 |
11 |
16 |
28 |
40 |
54 |
70 |
86 |
102 |
119 |
|
|
Others |
|
0 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
12 |
17 |
21 |
25 |
30 |
32 |
35 |
|
|
Total |
|
39 |
47 |
61 |
75 |
95 |
120 |
152 |
186 |
219 |
255 |
284 |
306 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
5 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
14 |
24 |
37 |
58 |
|
|
Oil |
|
21 |
32 |
40 |
42 |
50 |
51 |
50 |
50 |
36 |
25 |
18 |
14 |
|
|
Gas |
|
8 |
11 |
18 |
27 |
41 |
62 |
87 |
111 |
132 |
150 |
155 |
133 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
13 |
20 |
26 |
32 |
39 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
14 |
13 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
28 |
36 |
46 |
64 |
86 |
111 |
132 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
2 |
3 |
6 |
8 |
13 |
23 |
32 |
40 |
47 |
53 |
58 |
62 |
|
|
Total |
|
49 |
63 |
81 |
100 |
131 |
172 |
217 |
267 |
314 |
364 |
411 |
437 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,8 |
1,1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
1,0 |
1,4 |
1,9 |
2,4 |
2,9 |
3,4 |
3,8 |
4,0 |
4,2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,6 |
1,1 |
1,7 |
2,7 |
3,9 |
5,2 |
6,6 |
8,1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
16,4 |
35,0 |
54,0 |
73,6 |
94,8 |
118,6 |
145,7 |
176,3 |
209,3 |
244,6 |
280,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B2 run |
|
Cropland |
|
371 |
389 |
397 |
405 |
413 |
421 |
429 |
438 |
446 |
455 |
464 |
474 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
1680 |
1676 |
1689 |
1699 |
1709 |
1725 |
1741 |
1754 |
1766 |
1777 |
1787 |
1797 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
48 |
100 |
151 |
164 |
177 |
179 |
170 |
161 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1745 |
1717 |
1699 |
1692 |
1701 |
1721 |
1740 |
1752 |
1765 |
1777 |
1790 |
1803 |
|
|
Others |
|
1684 |
1698 |
1695 |
1676 |
1608 |
1513 |
1419 |
1372 |
1326 |
1292 |
1269 |
1246 |
|
|
Total |
|
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
0,72 |
1,01 |
1,26 |
1,48 |
1,88 |
2,24 |
2,60 |
3,04 |
3,27 |
3,55 |
3,79 |
3,84 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,73 |
0,82 |
0,63 |
0,42 |
0,12 |
0,01 |
-0,11 |
-0,11 |
-0,10 |
-0,12 |
-0,16 |
-0,20 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,45 |
1,83 |
1,90 |
1,90 |
2,01 |
2,25 |
2,49 |
2,94 |
3,17 |
3,43 |
3,63 |
3,64 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
77 |
85 |
94 |
102 |
112 |
129 |
149 |
162 |
175 |
187 |
193 |
200 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
1,2 |
1,3 |
0,7 |
0,6 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,8 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
10,5 |
12,8 |
14,4 |
15,2 |
16,7 |
17,8 |
19,4 |
20,0 |
19,6 |
19,1 |
18,0 |
17,2 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
2 |
12 |
20 |
32 |
54 |
84 |
120 |
157 |
190 |
211 |
223 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
4 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
27 |
33 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
37 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
20 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
396 |
404 |
416 |
427 |
445 |
492 |
542 |
616 |
728 |
860 |
992 |
1075 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
48 |
55 |
65 |
72 |
78 |
81 |
83 |
86 |
82 |
80 |
77 |
75 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B2 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|