World |
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
5262 |
6117 |
6888 |
7617 |
8182 |
8531 |
8704 |
8667 |
8463 |
8125 |
7658 |
7056 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
20,9 |
26,8 |
36,7 |
56,5 |
88,5 |
126,0 |
166,0 |
212,3 |
253,8 |
290,1 |
322,7 |
350,3 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
25,7 |
33,3 |
45,7 |
66,9 |
96,0 |
130,3 |
166,8 |
208,9 |
246,1 |
281,7 |
313,4 |
340,2 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
38 |
25 |
20 |
16 |
10 |
8 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
42 |
52 |
54 |
58 |
58 |
44 |
29 |
24 |
14 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
111 |
123 |
152 |
180 |
212 |
238 |
259 |
262 |
242 |
208 |
179 |
161 |
|
|
Gas |
|
41 |
47 |
58 |
66 |
71 |
75 |
74 |
67 |
62 |
58 |
53 |
45 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
35 |
44 |
57 |
83 |
116 |
152 |
186 |
231 |
264 |
291 |
307 |
313 |
|
|
Others |
|
8 |
10 |
17 |
32 |
52 |
76 |
104 |
139 |
173 |
201 |
218 |
213 |
|
|
Total |
|
275 |
302 |
359 |
434 |
519 |
593 |
659 |
723 |
755 |
768 |
758 |
732 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
91 |
91 |
100 |
111 |
103 |
87 |
64 |
50 |
43 |
47 |
60 |
60 |
|
|
Oil |
|
128 |
155 |
172 |
188 |
204 |
197 |
191 |
162 |
139 |
100 |
70 |
53 |
|
|
Gas |
|
71 |
83 |
110 |
149 |
215 |
273 |
306 |
324 |
304 |
287 |
263 |
244 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
7 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
30 |
45 |
66 |
79 |
81 |
80 |
82 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
46 |
44 |
47 |
60 |
79 |
101 |
123 |
159 |
203 |
245 |
280 |
316 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
8 |
13 |
21 |
39 |
63 |
112 |
183 |
272 |
348 |
406 |
431 |
404 |
|
|
Total |
|
352 |
393 |
460 |
560 |
682 |
798 |
911 |
1033 |
1117 |
1167 |
1184 |
1157 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,9 |
1,8 |
2,8 |
3,9 |
5,0 |
5,8 |
6,5 |
7,0 |
7,4 |
7,9 |
8,5 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
1,4 |
3,0 |
4,7 |
6,6 |
8,6 |
10,6 |
12,5 |
14,1 |
15,5 |
16,5 |
17,2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,7 |
1,6 |
2,7 |
4,1 |
6,3 |
9,0 |
12,1 |
15,3 |
18,4 |
21,2 |
23,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
75,3 |
158,6 |
246,9 |
338,3 |
432,9 |
528,1 |
620,1 |
704,9 |
780,4 |
847,6 |
907,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run |
|
Cropland |
|
1459 |
1466 |
1464 |
1461 |
1458 |
1452 |
1447 |
1442 |
1437 |
1433 |
1431 |
1429 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
3389 |
3407 |
3432 |
3453 |
3474 |
3510 |
3547 |
3591 |
3635 |
3668 |
3688 |
3709 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
59 |
137 |
196 |
254 |
260 |
266 |
261 |
243 |
225 |
|
|
Forest |
|
4296 |
4255 |
4231 |
4264 |
4335 |
4405 |
4475 |
4522 |
4570 |
4619 |
4669 |
4719 |
|
|
Others |
|
3805 |
3820 |
3822 |
3711 |
3545 |
3386 |
3226 |
3133 |
3040 |
2968 |
2918 |
2868 |
|
|
Total |
|
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
5,99 |
6,90 |
7,90 |
8,99 |
9,97 |
10,27 |
10,11 |
9,57 |
8,60 |
7,63 |
6,99 |
6,33 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
1,11 |
1,07 |
0,79 |
-0,03 |
-0,65 |
-0,66 |
-0,67 |
-0,62 |
-0,57 |
-0,57 |
-0,61 |
-0,65 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
7,10 |
7,97 |
8,69 |
8,96 |
9,32 |
9,61 |
9,44 |
8,94 |
8,03 |
7,06 |
6,38 |
5,68 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
310 |
323 |
351 |
385 |
423 |
449 |
468 |
452 |
441 |
411 |
359 |
302 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
6,7 |
7,0 |
6,0 |
5,8 |
5,7 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
5,5 |
5,5 |
5,4 |
5,4 |
5,4 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
70,9 |
69,0 |
62,0 |
53,8 |
48,1 |
40,4 |
33,3 |
26,9 |
24,1 |
20,6 |
17,8 |
15,5 |
|
|
CFC/HFC/HCFC |
MtC eq. |
1672 |
883 |
784 |
291 |
257 |
298 |
338 |
337 |
333 |
327 |
315 |
299 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
32 |
25 |
29 |
32 |
33 |
37 |
42 |
47 |
45 |
43 |
46 |
45 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
38 |
40 |
36 |
37 |
47 |
58 |
68 |
71 |
62 |
46 |
43 |
43 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
879 |
877 |
951 |
1065 |
1193 |
1323 |
1470 |
1549 |
1658 |
1731 |
1793 |
1871 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
139 |
141 |
157 |
177 |
184 |
190 |
199 |
185 |
173 |
152 |
125 |
103 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
31 |
32 |
37 |
42 |
47 |
47 |
45 |
40 |
35 |
29 |
26 |
23 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B1 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
OECD90 |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
859 |
919 |
965 |
1007 |
1043 |
1069 |
1081 |
1084 |
1089 |
1098 |
1108 |
1110 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
16,4 |
20,6 |
25,5 |
31,1 |
37,2 |
43,5 |
49,8 |
56,2 |
63,0 |
70,5 |
78,6 |
86,9 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
14,1 |
17,7 |
22,1 |
27,0 |
32,4 |
37,9 |
43,5 |
49,2 |
55,3 |
62,1 |
69,3 |
76,8 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
13 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
66 |
69 |
75 |
75 |
73 |
70 |
71 |
68 |
66 |
62 |
58 |
55 |
|
|
Gas |
|
22 |
28 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
25 |
20 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
7 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
22 |
28 |
34 |
42 |
50 |
58 |
64 |
70 |
76 |
83 |
88 |
92 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
|
|
Total |
|
124 |
136 |
146 |
155 |
162 |
168 |
171 |
173 |
174 |
175 |
175 |
173 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
38 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
30 |
14 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
72 |
84 |
83 |
75 |
64 |
55 |
48 |
38 |
31 |
24 |
18 |
14 |
|
|
Gas |
|
33 |
45 |
53 |
62 |
81 |
91 |
95 |
86 |
90 |
104 |
114 |
116 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
16 |
27 |
42 |
50 |
47 |
38 |
32 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
6 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
17 |
20 |
23 |
31 |
40 |
50 |
62 |
68 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
4 |
5 |
8 |
13 |
17 |
27 |
34 |
37 |
37 |
39 |
41 |
43 |
|
|
Total |
|
159 |
182 |
194 |
207 |
220 |
224 |
233 |
240 |
252 |
264 |
275 |
274 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
1,4 |
1,7 |
1,8 |
1,9 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
2,0 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,5 |
3,2 |
3,8 |
4,4 |
4,9 |
5,3 |
5,6 |
5,8 |
6,0 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,3 |
2,0 |
2,8 |
3,7 |
4,6 |
5,5 |
6,5 |
7,5 |
8,7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
30,1 |
62,4 |
94,3 |
124,9 |
152,7 |
177,3 |
199,4 |
219,6 |
239,1 |
258,4 |
277,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run |
|
Cropland |
|
381 |
380 |
378 |
376 |
374 |
370 |
366 |
361 |
357 |
354 |
353 |
352 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
760 |
765 |
772 |
779 |
787 |
809 |
832 |
862 |
893 |
912 |
918 |
924 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
23 |
33 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
45 |
42 |
39 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1050 |
1059 |
1074 |
1094 |
1117 |
1133 |
1149 |
1154 |
1159 |
1167 |
1179 |
1192 |
|
|
Others |
|
838 |
826 |
805 |
770 |
728 |
684 |
639 |
607 |
574 |
551 |
537 |
522 |
|
|
Total |
|
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,32 |
3,27 |
3,14 |
2,73 |
2,46 |
2,16 |
2,00 |
1,99 |
2,01 |
1,96 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,07 |
-0,13 |
-0,16 |
-0,14 |
-0,12 |
-0,08 |
-0,04 |
-0,04 |
-0,08 |
-0,12 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,25 |
3,14 |
2,98 |
2,59 |
2,34 |
2,08 |
1,96 |
1,94 |
1,93 |
1,84 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
73 |
74 |
71 |
69 |
66 |
62 |
59 |
56 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,1 |
2,1 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
22,7 |
17,0 |
9,1 |
2,2 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,0 |
0,5 |
0,9 |
1,5 |
1,9 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
19 |
58 |
108 |
103 |
109 |
112 |
116 |
117 |
117 |
119 |
120 |
120 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
18 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
24 |
23 |
16 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
179 |
161 |
166 |
170 |
163 |
162 |
157 |
164 |
171 |
177 |
180 |
166 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
42 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
32 |
31 |
30 |
29 |
29 |
29 |
24 |
18 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B1 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
REF |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
413 |
419 |
427 |
433 |
435 |
433 |
423 |
409 |
392 |
374 |
357 |
339 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,1 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
2,0 |
4,9 |
7,9 |
9,9 |
11,9 |
13,8 |
15,6 |
17,4 |
19,0 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
2,6 |
2,2 |
2,5 |
3,6 |
5,7 |
7,9 |
9,9 |
11,9 |
13,8 |
15,6 |
17,4 |
19,0 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
9 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
15 |
10 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
|
|
Gas |
|
14 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
6 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
|
|
Others |
|
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
|
|
Total |
|
50 |
36 |
37 |
42 |
48 |
48 |
47 |
45 |
45 |
43 |
41 |
38 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
19 |
13 |
9 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
Oil |
|
20 |
14 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
|
|
Gas |
|
27 |
20 |
23 |
28 |
35 |
40 |
44 |
49 |
50 |
46 |
37 |
27 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
13 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
Total |
|
70 |
50 |
48 |
55 |
64 |
68 |
70 |
74 |
78 |
77 |
76 |
71 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,4 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
1,1 |
1,2 |
1,3 |
1,4 |
1,5 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
1,3 |
1,8 |
2,2 |
2,8 |
3,4 |
3,9 |
4,4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
11,0 |
20,0 |
28,1 |
36,1 |
44,0 |
51,2 |
58,4 |
66,4 |
74,5 |
81,7 |
87,4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run |
|
Cropland |
|
268 |
266 |
266 |
266 |
265 |
265 |
264 |
264 |
263 |
263 |
263 |
262 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
341 |
362 |
364 |
366 |
368 |
370 |
372 |
374 |
376 |
378 |
380 |
382 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
20 |
29 |
37 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
35 |
33 |
|
|
Forest |
|
966 |
951 |
934 |
933 |
934 |
954 |
973 |
983 |
993 |
1005 |
1018 |
1031 |
|
|
Others |
|
701 |
696 |
711 |
702 |
688 |
659 |
630 |
617 |
604 |
592 |
580 |
568 |
|
|
Total |
|
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,84 |
0,87 |
0,96 |
0,95 |
0,96 |
0,98 |
1,01 |
0,93 |
0,79 |
0,62 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,04 |
-0,11 |
-0,12 |
-0,20 |
-0,28 |
-0,23 |
-0,17 |
-0,15 |
-0,14 |
-0,14 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,88 |
0,76 |
0,84 |
0,75 |
0,69 |
0,76 |
0,84 |
0,78 |
0,65 |
0,48 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
47 |
39 |
39 |
41 |
43 |
45 |
46 |
41 |
38 |
36 |
32 |
27 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,0 |
11,0 |
7,1 |
4,6 |
3,0 |
1,7 |
2,0 |
1,9 |
2,7 |
3,2 |
3,4 |
2,8 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
4 |
9 |
15 |
20 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
26 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
7 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
8 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
69 |
41 |
44 |
49 |
58 |
63 |
60 |
53 |
49 |
40 |
35 |
33 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
16 |
13 |
15 |
18 |
21 |
23 |
25 |
27 |
30 |
30 |
23 |
15 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B1 land-use data |
|
|
ASIA |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
2798 |
3261 |
3620 |
3937 |
4147 |
4238 |
4220 |
4085 |
3867 |
3589 |
3258 |
2882 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,5 |
2,7 |
5,9 |
14,0 |
28,0 |
44,1 |
60,5 |
81,5 |
99,6 |
112,8 |
123,9 |
131,7 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
5,3 |
8,3 |
13,7 |
23,5 |
36,7 |
51,2 |
65,4 |
84,4 |
99,6 |
112,8 |
123,9 |
131,7 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
24 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
19 |
33 |
42 |
49 |
52 |
39 |
26 |
21 |
13 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
13 |
22 |
37 |
55 |
74 |
94 |
111 |
113 |
106 |
85 |
68 |
58 |
|
|
Gas |
|
2 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
4 |
6 |
11 |
21 |
35 |
49 |
63 |
83 |
96 |
104 |
107 |
106 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
21 |
31 |
44 |
59 |
75 |
86 |
95 |
91 |
|
|
Total |
|
62 |
82 |
114 |
155 |
198 |
234 |
264 |
293 |
306 |
302 |
288 |
271 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
30 |
41 |
52 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
46 |
32 |
23 |
24 |
34 |
29 |
|
|
Oil |
|
15 |
26 |
40 |
57 |
72 |
74 |
77 |
69 |
66 |
48 |
31 |
23 |
|
|
Gas |
|
3 |
5 |
14 |
24 |
39 |
55 |
68 |
74 |
68 |
52 |
44 |
34 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
27 |
32 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
24 |
22 |
25 |
31 |
41 |
53 |
64 |
75 |
82 |
95 |
98 |
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
3 |
5 |
12 |
25 |
44 |
75 |
124 |
159 |
183 |
183 |
169 |
|
|
Total |
|
74 |
98 |
138 |
191 |
247 |
300 |
346 |
393 |
419 |
425 |
417 |
386 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,7 |
1,3 |
1,9 |
2,5 |
3,2 |
3,6 |
3,9 |
4,2 |
4,4 |
4,8 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,9 |
1,4 |
2,1 |
2,9 |
3,7 |
4,3 |
5,0 |
5,5 |
5,8 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
0,8 |
1,3 |
1,9 |
2,4 |
2,9 |
3,3 |
3,5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
17,8 |
41,4 |
70,5 |
104,0 |
141,6 |
180,1 |
215,9 |
246,9 |
272,6 |
294,5 |
313,4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run |
|
Cropland |
|
438 |
435 |
435 |
435 |
434 |
434 |
434 |
434 |
433 |
433 |
433 |
433 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
608 |
606 |
609 |
612 |
614 |
617 |
619 |
622 |
625 |
628 |
631 |
634 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
28 |
40 |
52 |
54 |
55 |
54 |
50 |
46 |
|
|
Forest |
|
535 |
525 |
518 |
535 |
551 |
557 |
563 |
578 |
593 |
604 |
610 |
616 |
|
|
Others |
|
583 |
598 |
602 |
571 |
536 |
516 |
496 |
477 |
458 |
446 |
441 |
436 |
|
|
Total |
|
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,15 |
1,78 |
2,49 |
3,29 |
3,78 |
4,01 |
3,84 |
3,44 |
3,04 |
2,46 |
2,23 |
1,79 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,37 |
0,26 |
0,20 |
-0,17 |
-0,18 |
-0,10 |
-0,03 |
-0,10 |
-0,17 |
-0,18 |
-0,14 |
-0,10 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,53 |
2,03 |
2,69 |
3,12 |
3,60 |
3,90 |
3,81 |
3,33 |
2,87 |
2,28 |
2,09 |
1,70 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
113 |
125 |
144 |
166 |
188 |
203 |
212 |
203 |
197 |
180 |
152 |
118 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,3 |
2,6 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,7 |
25,3 |
30,2 |
31,5 |
29,6 |
23,3 |
16,1 |
11,5 |
9,4 |
6,3 |
4,0 |
3,0 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
4 |
11 |
20 |
34 |
56 |
93 |
90 |
85 |
79 |
72 |
64 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
4 |
7 |
11 |
17 |
23 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
26 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
235 |
270 |
338 |
432 |
543 |
645 |
764 |
792 |
800 |
775 |
773 |
751 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
33 |
37 |
47 |
60 |
65 |
68 |
75 |
69 |
61 |
48 |
40 |
34 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
9 |
12 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B1 land-use data |
|
|
ALM |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
1192 |
1519 |
1875 |
2241 |
2557 |
2791 |
2980 |
3089 |
3115 |
3064 |
2934 |
2727 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,9 |
2,7 |
4,3 |
9,3 |
18,3 |
30,5 |
45,7 |
62,7 |
77,5 |
91,1 |
102,9 |
112,7 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
3,8 |
5,1 |
7,4 |
12,8 |
21,2 |
33,3 |
47,9 |
63,4 |
77,5 |
91,1 |
102,9 |
112,7 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
14 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
1 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
17 |
22 |
28 |
36 |
49 |
57 |
63 |
66 |
57 |
49 |
43 |
39 |
|
|
Gas |
|
4 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
17 |
18 |
22 |
24 |
27 |
26 |
23 |
19 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
3 |
5 |
7 |
13 |
21 |
33 |
46 |
63 |
76 |
87 |
94 |
96 |
|
|
Others |
|
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
15 |
27 |
40 |
55 |
70 |
85 |
94 |
96 |
|
|
Total |
|
39 |
48 |
61 |
82 |
111 |
143 |
178 |
211 |
231 |
248 |
254 |
251 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
17 |
21 |
26 |
|
|
Oil |
|
21 |
30 |
35 |
41 |
49 |
52 |
52 |
44 |
31 |
20 |
13 |
8 |
|
|
Gas |
|
8 |
12 |
20 |
34 |
60 |
87 |
100 |
114 |
96 |
86 |
68 |
67 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
14 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
25 |
33 |
50 |
77 |
94 |
108 |
131 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
2 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
17 |
35 |
67 |
103 |
143 |
174 |
194 |
179 |
|
|
Total |
|
49 |
63 |
80 |
108 |
152 |
206 |
262 |
326 |
368 |
400 |
417 |
426 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
0,9 |
1,3 |
1,8 |
2,3 |
2,8 |
3,3 |
3,6 |
3,8 |
3,9 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,3 |
3,3 |
4,6 |
5,6 |
6,5 |
7,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
16,4 |
34,9 |
54,0 |
73,2 |
94,6 |
119,4 |
146,3 |
172,0 |
194,1 |
213,0 |
229,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run |
|
Cropland |
|
371 |
385 |
385 |
385 |
384 |
384 |
383 |
383 |
383 |
383 |
382 |
382 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
1680 |
1675 |
1686 |
1696 |
1705 |
1714 |
1723 |
1732 |
1741 |
1750 |
1760 |
1769 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
66 |
93 |
121 |
124 |
127 |
124 |
116 |
107 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1745 |
1720 |
1704 |
1702 |
1732 |
1761 |
1790 |
1808 |
1825 |
1843 |
1862 |
1880 |
|
|
Others |
|
1684 |
1700 |
1704 |
1669 |
1593 |
1527 |
1461 |
1432 |
1403 |
1379 |
1361 |
1342 |
|
|
Total |
|
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
0,72 |
1,01 |
1,25 |
1,56 |
2,10 |
2,58 |
2,85 |
2,99 |
2,55 |
2,26 |
1,96 |
1,96 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,73 |
0,82 |
0,62 |
0,38 |
-0,19 |
-0,22 |
-0,25 |
-0,22 |
-0,19 |
-0,20 |
-0,24 |
-0,29 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,45 |
1,83 |
1,87 |
1,95 |
1,90 |
2,36 |
2,60 |
2,77 |
2,36 |
2,06 |
1,71 |
1,67 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
77 |
85 |
97 |
109 |
125 |
138 |
151 |
153 |
153 |
143 |
122 |
104 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
1,2 |
1,3 |
0,7 |
0,6 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1
emulation run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
10,5 |
12,8 |
12,7 |
12,5 |
12,0 |
11,8 |
11,6 |
10,4 |
8,5 |
7,2 |
5,9 |
4,8 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
2 |
16 |
28 |
42 |
64 |
98 |
102 |
102 |
101 |
96 |
89 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
2 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
17 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
396 |
404 |
403 |
414 |
429 |
453 |
489 |
540 |
638 |
738 |
806 |
922 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
48 |
55 |
59 |
64 |
67 |
67 |
68 |
60 |
53 |
45 |
39 |
36 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
B1 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|