World |
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
5262 |
6170 |
7188 |
8206 |
9170 |
10715 |
11296 |
12139 |
12587 |
13828 |
14743 |
15068 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
20,9 |
25,2 |
31,9 |
40,5 |
51,2 |
72,3 |
81,6 |
101,9 |
114,1 |
159,3 |
218,4 |
242,8 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
25,7 |
31,2 |
39,7 |
50,5 |
63,3 |
82,2 |
106,0 |
132,2 |
155,2 |
180,1 |
208,0 |
225,6 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
38 |
23 |
26 |
24 |
22 |
20 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
Solids |
|
42 |
39 |
27 |
20 |
13 |
24 |
32 |
30 |
21 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
111 |
137 |
181 |
235 |
279 |
284 |
296 |
302 |
352 |
391 |
456 |
501 |
|
|
Gas |
|
41 |
51 |
58 |
68 |
85 |
105 |
132 |
162 |
145 |
156 |
143 |
161 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
35 |
46 |
60 |
82 |
109 |
147 |
184 |
230 |
277 |
337 |
397 |
459 |
|
|
Others |
|
8 |
11 |
17 |
28 |
44 |
65 |
88 |
113 |
137 |
158 |
180 |
200 |
|
|
Total |
|
275 |
306 |
368 |
457 |
552 |
645 |
750 |
855 |
947 |
1066 |
1197 |
1342 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
91 |
83 |
97 |
122 |
157 |
211 |
273 |
342 |
458 |
569 |
735 |
871 |
|
|
Oil |
|
128 |
171 |
208 |
253 |
274 |
244 |
205 |
146 |
109 |
86 |
64 |
47 |
|
|
Gas |
|
71 |
86 |
108 |
135 |
173 |
208 |
245 |
292 |
268 |
285 |
281 |
289 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
7 |
9 |
13 |
17 |
22 |
34 |
47 |
62 |
79 |
97 |
116 |
136 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
46 |
41 |
42 |
50 |
69 |
97 |
141 |
194 |
245 |
271 |
287 |
299 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
8 |
14 |
21 |
34 |
50 |
77 |
103 |
132 |
165 |
196 |
228 |
280 |
|
|
Total |
|
352 |
404 |
489 |
610 |
745 |
871 |
1014 |
1168 |
1323 |
1504 |
1710 |
1921 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,9 |
1,7 |
2,7 |
3,9 |
5,5 |
7,6 |
10,3 |
13,7 |
18,3 |
24,0 |
31,4 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
1,5 |
3,2 |
5,3 |
7,8 |
10,5 |
13,0 |
15,0 |
16,5 |
17,6 |
18,4 |
19,1 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,7 |
4,0 |
5,8 |
7,9 |
10,3 |
13,2 |
15,9 |
18,8 |
21,6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
75,3 |
162,5 |
267,0 |
391,0 |
530,7 |
683,4 |
848,2 |
1027,2 |
1227,6 |
1459,2 |
1725,2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
|
Cropland |
|
|
|
|
|
Grasslands |
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
|
|
|
|
Forest |
|
|
|
|
Others |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
5,99 |
6,90 |
8,34 |
10,32 |
12,28 |
13,66 |
15,11 |
16,46 |
18,38 |
21,10 |
24,90 |
28,21 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
1,11 |
1,07 |
1,11 |
1,14 |
1,05 |
0,96 |
0,81 |
0,59 |
0,38 |
0,22 |
0,10 |
-0,02 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
7,10 |
7,97 |
9,45 |
11,46 |
13,33 |
14,62 |
15,91 |
17,05 |
18,76 |
21,32 |
25,00 |
28,19 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
310 |
323 |
363 |
418 |
489 |
592 |
671 |
743 |
803 |
900 |
993 |
1069 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
6,7 |
7,0 |
6,4 |
6,3 |
6,3 |
6,6 |
6,8 |
7,1 |
7,3 |
7,6 |
7,9 |
8,1 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
70,9 |
69,0 |
68,3 |
79,8 |
94,2 |
106,5 |
103,6 |
99,0 |
83,8 |
74,3 |
68,1 |
68,7 |
|
|
CFC/HFC/HCFC |
MtC eq. |
1672 |
883 |
785 |
292 |
258 |
291 |
312 |
384 |
457 |
549 |
662 |
753 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
32 |
25 |
41 |
51 |
64 |
77 |
92 |
113 |
129 |
148 |
168 |
178 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
38 |
40 |
50 |
64 |
75 |
89 |
104 |
122 |
129 |
135 |
153 |
165 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
879 |
877 |
972 |
1100 |
1246 |
1396 |
1585 |
1810 |
2075 |
2250 |
2426 |
2646 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
139 |
141 |
170 |
204 |
229 |
239 |
242 |
241 |
247 |
262 |
281 |
311 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
31 |
32 |
38 |
47 |
56 |
61 |
66 |
71 |
78 |
87 |
97 |
110 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A2 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
OECD90 |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
851 |
923 |
975 |
1027 |
1072 |
1131 |
1151 |
1202 |
1228 |
1323 |
1451 |
1496 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
15,3 |
18,7 |
22,3 |
26,0 |
30,0 |
37,1 |
39,9 |
46,3 |
50,0 |
63,1 |
80,7 |
87,6 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
14,1 |
16,0 |
18,5 |
20,8 |
23,1 |
28,2 |
30,8 |
36,2 |
39,0 |
49,5 |
63,8 |
69,8 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
13 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
66 |
72 |
88 |
102 |
105 |
99 |
88 |
78 |
79 |
80 |
85 |
94 |
|
|
Gas |
|
22 |
26 |
22 |
16 |
19 |
23 |
28 |
33 |
27 |
26 |
26 |
27 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
22 |
28 |
35 |
43 |
53 |
65 |
75 |
88 |
101 |
117 |
133 |
153 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
25 |
28 |
33 |
39 |
|
|
Total |
|
124 |
136 |
151 |
168 |
185 |
197 |
205 |
217 |
232 |
251 |
277 |
314 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
38 |
40 |
47 |
56 |
71 |
91 |
112 |
126 |
151 |
195 |
232 |
240 |
|
|
Oil |
|
72 |
89 |
99 |
105 |
96 |
83 |
62 |
41 |
31 |
23 |
16 |
11 |
|
|
Gas |
|
33 |
38 |
42 |
43 |
52 |
52 |
58 |
77 |
80 |
72 |
81 |
99 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
19 |
25 |
31 |
36 |
42 |
50 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
6 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
21 |
29 |
32 |
35 |
37 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
4 |
6 |
7 |
11 |
15 |
21 |
27 |
32 |
39 |
43 |
48 |
55 |
|
|
Total |
|
159 |
185 |
209 |
233 |
259 |
280 |
300 |
328 |
363 |
404 |
457 |
496 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,3 |
1,8 |
2,5 |
3,4 |
4,6 |
5,9 |
7,7 |
10,1 |
13,0 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,7 |
2,7 |
3,7 |
4,7 |
5,5 |
6,1 |
6,5 |
6,8 |
7,1 |
7,2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,7 |
1,2 |
1,6 |
2,1 |
2,6 |
3,2 |
4,0 |
4,8 |
5,5 |
6,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
30,1 |
64,2 |
102,2 |
143,7 |
188,3 |
235,3 |
284,9 |
339,0 |
401,1 |
473,9 |
553,5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
|
Cropland |
|
|
|
|
|
Grasslands |
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
|
|
|
|
Forest |
|
|
|
|
Others |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,61 |
3,98 |
4,33 |
4,58 |
4,83 |
5,08 |
5,74 |
6,70 |
7,86 |
8,06 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,61 |
3,98 |
4,33 |
4,58 |
4,83 |
5,08 |
5,74 |
6,70 |
7,86 |
8,06 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
73 |
74 |
72 |
72 |
78 |
89 |
99 |
111 |
126 |
149 |
176 |
175 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,7 |
2,7 |
2,8 |
2,9 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
22,7 |
17,0 |
11,0 |
5,9 |
4,0 |
3,1 |
2,1 |
1,9 |
2,8 |
3,9 |
5,1 |
5,7 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
19 |
57 |
107 |
103 |
111 |
116 |
125 |
130 |
135 |
142 |
151 |
160 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
18 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
23 |
23 |
25 |
28 |
29 |
29 |
28 |
26 |
20 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
179 |
161 |
170 |
180 |
185 |
200 |
208 |
226 |
223 |
229 |
233 |
243 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
42 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
35 |
35 |
30 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
26 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
13 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
25 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A2 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
REF |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
418 |
421 |
438 |
454 |
473 |
507 |
519 |
551 |
568 |
622 |
684 |
706 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
0,9 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
1,4 |
2,1 |
3,2 |
3,7 |
4,9 |
5,7 |
8,5 |
12,5 |
14,2 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
2,6 |
2,6 |
3,2 |
4,2 |
5,0 |
6,2 |
9,0 |
10,9 |
13,0 |
12,5 |
12,8 |
13,8 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
9 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
15 |
13 |
15 |
18 |
22 |
21 |
21 |
24 |
29 |
33 |
38 |
45 |
|
|
Gas |
|
14 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
6 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
27 |
31 |
37 |
43 |
|
|
Others |
|
7 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
21 |
22 |
24 |
24 |
|
|
Total |
|
50 |
43 |
46 |
53 |
62 |
67 |
74 |
85 |
94 |
104 |
117 |
131 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
19 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
18 |
23 |
34 |
47 |
50 |
64 |
82 |
|
|
Oil |
|
20 |
18 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
18 |
13 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
27 |
28 |
30 |
33 |
39 |
45 |
52 |
47 |
35 |
39 |
45 |
51 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
28 |
26 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
27 |
|
|
Total |
|
70 |
60 |
62 |
70 |
84 |
95 |
107 |
121 |
131 |
148 |
170 |
195 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
0,9 |
1,2 |
1,5 |
2,0 |
2,5 |
3,1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,6 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
1,2 |
1,3 |
1,4 |
1,5 |
1,6 |
1,6 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
0,9 |
1,2 |
1,6 |
2,0 |
2,6 |
3,0 |
3,4 |
3,8 |
4,2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
11,0 |
20,4 |
30,7 |
42,7 |
56,2 |
71,0 |
87,2 |
104,7 |
122,8 |
143,6 |
169,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
|
Cropland |
|
|
|
|
|
Grasslands |
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
|
|
|
|
Forest |
|
|
|
|
Others |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,96 |
1,09 |
1,31 |
1,40 |
1,54 |
1,71 |
1,78 |
1,86 |
2,30 |
2,84 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,96 |
1,09 |
1,31 |
1,40 |
1,54 |
1,71 |
1,78 |
1,86 |
2,30 |
2,84 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
47 |
39 |
41 |
44 |
51 |
58 |
66 |
69 |
72 |
78 |
94 |
113 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,0 |
11,0 |
10,9 |
12,5 |
15,3 |
18,2 |
20,7 |
23,3 |
18,2 |
11,8 |
6,2 |
6,4 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
4 |
8 |
13 |
20 |
27 |
31 |
37 |
41 |
44 |
48 |
52 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
7 |
4 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
25 |
30 |
35 |
40 |
42 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
8 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
28 |
32 |
36 |
38 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
69 |
41 |
43 |
51 |
61 |
68 |
75 |
82 |
100 |
114 |
145 |
183 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
16 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
24 |
23 |
20 |
20 |
21 |
25 |
32 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A2 land-use data |
|
|
ASIA |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
2791 |
3295 |
3801 |
4308 |
4779 |
5500 |
5764 |
6137 |
6333 |
6858 |
7214 |
7340 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,4 |
2,3 |
3,5 |
5,3 |
7,6 |
12,6 |
15,0 |
20,0 |
23,1 |
34,9 |
50,5 |
57,1 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
5,3 |
7,4 |
10,3 |
14,3 |
19,5 |
27,3 |
36,8 |
47,5 |
57,1 |
66,1 |
74,7 |
79,9 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
24 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
Solids |
|
19 |
19 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
21 |
29 |
28 |
18 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
13 |
26 |
42 |
61 |
85 |
93 |
105 |
104 |
119 |
133 |
155 |
180 |
|
|
Gas |
|
2 |
4 |
8 |
17 |
21 |
19 |
26 |
46 |
43 |
53 |
49 |
45 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
4 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
25 |
35 |
46 |
58 |
75 |
96 |
114 |
131 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
17 |
25 |
35 |
44 |
53 |
62 |
71 |
78 |
|
|
Total |
|
62 |
75 |
100 |
135 |
172 |
207 |
252 |
291 |
319 |
360 |
402 |
445 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
30 |
27 |
33 |
42 |
54 |
82 |
104 |
128 |
187 |
235 |
310 |
390 |
|
|
Oil |
|
15 |
31 |
47 |
67 |
86 |
80 |
71 |
47 |
27 |
16 |
10 |
4 |
|
|
Gas |
|
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
27 |
23 |
29 |
50 |
47 |
56 |
49 |
41 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
13 |
17 |
22 |
29 |
34 |
39 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
24 |
21 |
24 |
29 |
36 |
47 |
63 |
77 |
77 |
79 |
82 |
84 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
3 |
6 |
9 |
14 |
22 |
31 |
42 |
57 |
73 |
81 |
90 |
|
|
Total |
|
74 |
90 |
125 |
173 |
222 |
262 |
312 |
361 |
417 |
489 |
566 |
648 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
0,9 |
1,3 |
1,9 |
2,7 |
3,7 |
4,9 |
6,9 |
9,4 |
12,8 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
1,0 |
1,6 |
2,5 |
3,3 |
4,0 |
4,5 |
4,8 |
4,9 |
5,0 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
1,2 |
1,8 |
2,2 |
2,8 |
3,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
17,8 |
41,1 |
71,3 |
109,2 |
153,2 |
202,0 |
255,3 |
316,5 |
389,3 |
477,3 |
583,8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
|
Cropland |
|
|
|
|
|
Grasslands |
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
|
|
|
|
Forest |
|
|
|
|
Others |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,15 |
1,78 |
2,36 |
3,16 |
3,93 |
4,48 |
4,97 |
5,48 |
6,61 |
7,90 |
9,72 |
11,69 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,37 |
0,26 |
0,26 |
0,27 |
0,22 |
0,17 |
0,12 |
0,09 |
0,05 |
0,01 |
-0,03 |
-0,08 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,53 |
2,03 |
2,62 |
3,42 |
4,15 |
4,66 |
5,10 |
5,57 |
6,66 |
7,91 |
9,69 |
11,62 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
113 |
125 |
153 |
190 |
232 |
283 |
319 |
356 |
394 |
444 |
487 |
523 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,3 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,7 |
2,9 |
3,0 |
3,1 |
3,2 |
3,3 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,7 |
25,3 |
27,8 |
36,7 |
44,3 |
52,9 |
47,2 |
40,7 |
30,8 |
27,5 |
26,8 |
26,8 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
5 |
11 |
18 |
27 |
38 |
54 |
77 |
100 |
130 |
167 |
204 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
11 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
32 |
42 |
49 |
56 |
64 |
67 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
4 |
7 |
11 |
16 |
20 |
27 |
34 |
43 |
49 |
55 |
62 |
67 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
235 |
270 |
335 |
422 |
497 |
538 |
589 |
653 |
746 |
859 |
968 |
1107 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
33 |
37 |
49 |
63 |
72 |
73 |
75 |
82 |
91 |
102 |
113 |
128 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
9 |
12 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
23 |
25 |
28 |
33 |
38 |
43 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A2 land-use data |
|
|
ALM |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
1222 |
1530 |
1974 |
2417 |
2846 |
3578 |
3862 |
4250 |
4458 |
5025 |
5394 |
5526 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
2,4 |
3,4 |
5,1 |
7,8 |
11,5 |
19,3 |
23,0 |
30,6 |
35,4 |
52,9 |
74,7 |
83,8 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
3,8 |
5,2 |
7,7 |
11,2 |
15,7 |
20,4 |
29,4 |
37,5 |
46,1 |
52,0 |
56,7 |
62,2 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
14 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
|
Solids |
|
1 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
17 |
26 |
36 |
54 |
68 |
71 |
83 |
96 |
125 |
145 |
178 |
183 |
|
|
Gas |
|
4 |
6 |
11 |
19 |
27 |
45 |
58 |
64 |
57 |
59 |
50 |
70 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
3 |
5 |
8 |
14 |
20 |
33 |
45 |
61 |
75 |
92 |
113 |
133 |
|
|
Others |
|
0 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
18 |
25 |
33 |
39 |
45 |
52 |
59 |
|
|
Total |
|
39 |
53 |
71 |
101 |
134 |
174 |
219 |
262 |
303 |
350 |
402 |
454 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
5 |
5 |
7 |
11 |
15 |
19 |
34 |
53 |
73 |
90 |
129 |
159 |
|
|
Oil |
|
21 |
34 |
44 |
62 |
71 |
62 |
59 |
46 |
42 |
41 |
34 |
30 |
|
|
Gas |
|
8 |
13 |
22 |
36 |
55 |
89 |
107 |
119 |
107 |
118 |
107 |
98 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
17 |
21 |
26 |
31 |
37 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
14 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
18 |
31 |
50 |
78 |
117 |
129 |
141 |
151 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
2 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
16 |
26 |
35 |
45 |
53 |
60 |
75 |
107 |
|
|
Total |
|
49 |
69 |
93 |
134 |
179 |
234 |
296 |
358 |
412 |
463 |
517 |
582 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,6 |
0,9 |
1,4 |
1,8 |
2,1 |
2,5 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
1,1 |
1,7 |
2,4 |
3,0 |
3,6 |
4,1 |
4,5 |
4,9 |
5,2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,2 |
3,3 |
4,5 |
5,5 |
6,7 |
7,8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
16,4 |
36,8 |
62,9 |
95,4 |
133,0 |
175,1 |
220,8 |
267,1 |
314,3 |
364,3 |
418,5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
|
Cropland |
|
|
|
|
|
Grasslands |
|
|
|
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
|
|
|
|
Forest |
|
|
|
|
Others |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
0,72 |
1,01 |
1,40 |
2,10 |
2,71 |
3,19 |
3,77 |
4,18 |
4,25 |
4,65 |
5,02 |
5,61 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,73 |
0,82 |
0,85 |
0,87 |
0,83 |
0,79 |
0,68 |
0,51 |
0,33 |
0,20 |
0,13 |
0,06 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (IS92f) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,45 |
1,83 |
2,25 |
2,97 |
3,54 |
3,98 |
4,45 |
4,69 |
4,58 |
4,85 |
5,16 |
5,67 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
77 |
85 |
99 |
112 |
128 |
163 |
187 |
207 |
212 |
229 |
235 |
259 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
1,2 |
1,3 |
0,8 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,8 |
0,9 |
1,0 |
1,0 |
1,1 |
1,1 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A2 run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
10,5 |
12,8 |
15,6 |
21,7 |
27,6 |
29,4 |
30,6 |
30,2 |
29,1 |
28,1 |
27,0 |
26,9 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
2 |
19 |
32 |
49 |
69 |
98 |
139 |
181 |
233 |
295 |
336 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
4 |
4 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
21 |
26 |
34 |
39 |
45 |
50 |
52 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
18 |
23 |
29 |
32 |
37 |
41 |
43 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
396 |
404 |
424 |
448 |
503 |
591 |
712 |
848 |
1007 |
1048 |
1081 |
1113 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
48 |
55 |
68 |
86 |
101 |
108 |
113 |
112 |
112 |
115 |
119 |
125 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
22 |
24 |
27 |
29 |
32 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A2 land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|