World |
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
5262 |
6117 |
6888 |
7617 |
8182 |
8531 |
8704 |
8667 |
8463 |
8125 |
7658 |
7056 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
20,9 |
26,8 |
36,8 |
57,0 |
91,3 |
135,4 |
187,1 |
254,1 |
322,9 |
393,2 |
469,6 |
550,0 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
25,7 |
33,4 |
45,7 |
67,2 |
98,7 |
139,0 |
186,4 |
246,8 |
313,2 |
382,0 |
456,6 |
535,0 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
38 |
25 |
20 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
42 |
60 |
66 |
71 |
72 |
46 |
31 |
27 |
22 |
15 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
111 |
125 |
157 |
193 |
246 |
300 |
344 |
357 |
354 |
346 |
343 |
311 |
|
|
Gas |
|
41 |
48 |
66 |
83 |
107 |
135 |
155 |
180 |
177 |
159 |
132 |
100 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
35 |
48 |
66 |
100 |
153 |
209 |
275 |
349 |
424 |
483 |
534 |
589 |
|
|
Others |
|
8 |
12 |
18 |
33 |
48 |
61 |
83 |
108 |
138 |
179 |
220 |
268 |
|
|
Total |
|
275 |
317 |
393 |
495 |
634 |
757 |
893 |
1020 |
1115 |
1182 |
1231 |
1270 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
91 |
106 |
125 |
151 |
180 |
153 |
119 |
87 |
60 |
53 |
40 |
25 |
|
|
Oil |
|
128 |
155 |
172 |
193 |
223 |
241 |
250 |
236 |
205 |
143 |
113 |
77 |
|
|
Gas |
|
71 |
87 |
124 |
166 |
231 |
288 |
324 |
344 |
324 |
291 |
240 |
196 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
7 |
8 |
11 |
17 |
40 |
78 |
115 |
145 |
175 |
175 |
153 |
114 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
46 |
46 |
55 |
75 |
104 |
137 |
183 |
235 |
280 |
324 |
353 |
370 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
8 |
15 |
25 |
48 |
73 |
122 |
222 |
358 |
544 |
756 |
985 |
1239 |
|
|
Total |
|
352 |
416 |
513 |
649 |
850 |
1018 |
1213 |
1407 |
1588 |
1743 |
1884 |
2021 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,9 |
2,0 |
3,2 |
4,7 |
6,5 |
8,1 |
9,3 |
10,1 |
10,7 |
11,3 |
11,7 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
1,4 |
3,0 |
4,7 |
6,6 |
8,9 |
11,3 |
13,8 |
16,1 |
18,2 |
19,6 |
20,8 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,9 |
4,5 |
6,8 |
9,7 |
13,0 |
16,4 |
19,6 |
22,6 |
25,0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
75,3 |
162,1 |
260,3 |
373,4 |
498,6 |
623,1 |
741,3 |
847,6 |
937,0 |
1008,4 |
1061,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
1459 |
1466 |
1462 |
1457 |
1454 |
1448 |
1442 |
1436 |
1429 |
1424 |
1422 |
1420 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
3389 |
3404 |
3429 |
3446 |
3458 |
3478 |
3498 |
3525 |
3552 |
3568 |
3572 |
3576 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
158 |
288 |
418 |
492 |
566 |
581 |
538 |
495 |
|
|
Forest |
|
4296 |
4237 |
4173 |
4164 |
4164 |
4177 |
4190 |
4194 |
4199 |
4202 |
4203 |
4204 |
|
|
Others |
|
3805 |
3842 |
3886 |
3807 |
3715 |
3558 |
3400 |
3301 |
3203 |
3173 |
3213 |
3253 |
|
|
Total |
|
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
5,99 |
6,90 |
8,33 |
10,00 |
12,26 |
12,60 |
12,29 |
11,41 |
9,91 |
8,05 |
6,27 |
4,31 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
1,11 |
1,07 |
1,04 |
0,26 |
0,12 |
0,05 |
-0,02 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,01 |
0,00 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
7,10 |
7,97 |
9,38 |
10,26 |
12,38 |
12,65 |
12,26 |
11,38 |
9,87 |
8,02 |
6,26 |
4,32 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
310 |
323 |
362 |
415 |
483 |
495 |
500 |
459 |
404 |
359 |
317 |
274 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
6,7 |
7,0 |
6,1 |
6,1 |
6,2 |
6,2 |
6,1 |
6,0 |
5,7 |
5,6 |
5,5 |
5,4 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
70,9 |
69,0 |
64,7 |
59,9 |
59,6 |
46,6 |
40,2 |
34,4 |
30,1 |
25,2 |
23,3 |
20,2 |
|
|
CFC/HFC/HCFC |
MtC eq. |
1672 |
883 |
791 |
337 |
369 |
482 |
566 |
654 |
659 |
654 |
639 |
614 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
32 |
25 |
31 |
43 |
61 |
77 |
89 |
97 |
106 |
114 |
119 |
115 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
38 |
40 |
43 |
48 |
66 |
99 |
119 |
127 |
113 |
88 |
84 |
95 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
879 |
877 |
1003 |
1147 |
1362 |
1555 |
1770 |
1944 |
2078 |
2164 |
2156 |
2077 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
139 |
141 |
164 |
190 |
212 |
229 |
241 |
242 |
229 |
199 |
167 |
128 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
31 |
32 |
39 |
46 |
56 |
60 |
61 |
60 |
52 |
43 |
35 |
28 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
OECD90 |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
859 |
919 |
965 |
1007 |
1043 |
1069 |
1081 |
1084 |
1089 |
1098 |
1108 |
1110 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
16,4 |
20,6 |
25,6 |
31,6 |
38,7 |
46,8 |
55,7 |
65,7 |
77,2 |
90,8 |
106,6 |
124,3 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
14,1 |
17,8 |
22,1 |
27,4 |
33,7 |
40,8 |
48,6 |
57,4 |
67,6 |
79,7 |
93,6 |
109,4 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
13 |
13 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
66 |
69 |
74 |
73 |
72 |
70 |
66 |
65 |
62 |
61 |
60 |
55 |
|
|
Gas |
|
22 |
28 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
27 |
21 |
19 |
15 |
12 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
22 |
29 |
36 |
44 |
55 |
65 |
74 |
83 |
95 |
104 |
112 |
118 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
17 |
22 |
29 |
38 |
48 |
|
|
Total |
|
124 |
139 |
152 |
160 |
171 |
180 |
185 |
193 |
201 |
212 |
225 |
233 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
38 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
25 |
11 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
72 |
83 |
81 |
72 |
63 |
55 |
46 |
39 |
30 |
23 |
20 |
14 |
|
|
Gas |
|
33 |
45 |
57 |
70 |
79 |
78 |
76 |
66 |
59 |
56 |
45 |
34 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
6 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
22 |
43 |
56 |
64 |
67 |
58 |
45 |
28 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
6 |
9 |
11 |
17 |
21 |
24 |
31 |
37 |
41 |
45 |
52 |
55 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
4 |
6 |
10 |
15 |
20 |
27 |
44 |
65 |
98 |
143 |
194 |
245 |
|
|
Total |
|
159 |
186 |
202 |
214 |
230 |
238 |
257 |
275 |
297 |
325 |
356 |
377 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,7 |
1,1 |
1,4 |
1,7 |
1,7 |
1,8 |
1,8 |
1,8 |
1,8 |
1,8 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,4 |
3,1 |
3,8 |
4,3 |
4,8 |
5,2 |
5,5 |
5,7 |
5,9 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,1 |
2,9 |
3,6 |
4,4 |
5,0 |
5,6 |
6,2 |
6,6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
30,1 |
62,9 |
95,6 |
126,4 |
153,0 |
174,5 |
192,9 |
208,6 |
221,9 |
233,0 |
241,2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
381 |
380 |
377 |
376 |
375 |
372 |
368 |
364 |
359 |
356 |
356 |
355 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
760 |
763 |
771 |
774 |
776 |
787 |
797 |
818 |
839 |
849 |
847 |
846 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
24 |
44 |
63 |
74 |
86 |
88 |
81 |
75 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1050 |
1053 |
1052 |
1053 |
1056 |
1062 |
1068 |
1061 |
1054 |
1050 |
1049 |
1048 |
|
|
Others |
|
838 |
833 |
828 |
814 |
798 |
765 |
733 |
712 |
691 |
685 |
695 |
705 |
|
|
Total |
|
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,31 |
3,18 |
2,96 |
2,38 |
2,00 |
1,71 |
1,38 |
1,17 |
0,95 |
0,66 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,04 |
0,02 |
0,00 |
-0,02 |
-0,04 |
0,00 |
0,05 |
0,06 |
0,04 |
0,01 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,35 |
3,20 |
2,96 |
2,35 |
1,96 |
1,72 |
1,43 |
1,24 |
0,98 |
0,67 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
73 |
74 |
71 |
68 |
66 |
60 |
56 |
52 |
48 |
47 |
45 |
43 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
2,1 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
22,7 |
17,0 |
8,3 |
2,1 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,3 |
1,9 |
2,3 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
19 |
58 |
110 |
108 |
115 |
118 |
122 |
123 |
123 |
124 |
125 |
125 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
18 |
13 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
23 |
23 |
14 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
179 |
161 |
183 |
190 |
184 |
186 |
202 |
210 |
206 |
206 |
208 |
190 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
42 |
36 |
38 |
38 |
33 |
30 |
27 |
26 |
23 |
20 |
16 |
10 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
13 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
REF |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
413 |
419 |
427 |
433 |
435 |
433 |
423 |
409 |
392 |
374 |
357 |
339 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,1 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
2,1 |
5,4 |
9,4 |
12,6 |
16,2 |
20,0 |
24,4 |
29,2 |
34,4 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
2,6 |
2,2 |
2,5 |
3,7 |
6,0 |
9,4 |
12,6 |
16,2 |
20,0 |
24,4 |
29,2 |
34,4 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
9 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
15 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
Gas |
|
14 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
22 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
23 |
19 |
13 |
9 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
32 |
34 |
34 |
|
|
Others |
|
7 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
Total |
|
50 |
38 |
41 |
51 |
65 |
72 |
73 |
76 |
76 |
76 |
75 |
73 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
19 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
Oil |
|
20 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
Gas |
|
27 |
23 |
29 |
32 |
40 |
44 |
50 |
63 |
72 |
70 |
46 |
31 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
12 |
14 |
19 |
26 |
42 |
52 |
|
|
Total |
|
70 |
54 |
56 |
65 |
84 |
95 |
101 |
112 |
117 |
120 |
119 |
116 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
0,9 |
1,0 |
1,1 |
1,1 |
1,1 |
1,2 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,8 |
0,9 |
1,0 |
1,1 |
1,2 |
1,3 |
1,3 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,8 |
1,1 |
1,5 |
1,9 |
2,4 |
3,1 |
3,8 |
4,5 |
5,0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
11,0 |
20,9 |
31,3 |
42,4 |
54,4 |
65,2 |
75,7 |
86,7 |
97,4 |
106,8 |
114,1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
268 |
266 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
264 |
263 |
262 |
262 |
261 |
260 |
260 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
341 |
361 |
364 |
366 |
367 |
368 |
370 |
371 |
371 |
372 |
373 |
374 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
21 |
20 |
|
|
Forest |
|
966 |
950 |
918 |
904 |
894 |
899 |
905 |
909 |
912 |
916 |
922 |
927 |
|
|
Others |
|
701 |
698 |
728 |
738 |
745 |
733 |
722 |
715 |
709 |
703 |
700 |
696 |
|
|
Total |
|
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,88 |
1,00 |
1,22 |
1,24 |
1,16 |
1,20 |
1,20 |
1,11 |
0,91 |
0,66 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,18 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
-0,08 |
-0,15 |
-0,12 |
-0,09 |
-0,07 |
-0,06 |
-0,05 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
1,06 |
1,01 |
1,22 |
1,17 |
1,01 |
1,09 |
1,11 |
1,03 |
0,84 |
0,61 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
47 |
39 |
42 |
49 |
58 |
58 |
54 |
52 |
48 |
43 |
36 |
30 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,0 |
11,0 |
7,5 |
4,9 |
5,2 |
4,5 |
4,1 |
1,8 |
1,2 |
0,7 |
3,0 |
3,1 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
4 |
8 |
19 |
29 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
31 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
7 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
14 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
8 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
69 |
41 |
49 |
61 |
82 |
98 |
112 |
121 |
118 |
105 |
90 |
75 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
16 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
25 |
31 |
34 |
39 |
37 |
33 |
30 |
26 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
ASIA |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
2798 |
3261 |
3620 |
3937 |
4147 |
4238 |
4220 |
4085 |
3867 |
3589 |
3258 |
2882 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,5 |
2,7 |
5,8 |
13,5 |
27,2 |
44,9 |
65,3 |
95,8 |
126,9 |
155,5 |
186,5 |
218,2 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
5,3 |
8,3 |
13,5 |
22,8 |
36,2 |
52,2 |
70,0 |
96,8 |
126,9 |
155,5 |
186,5 |
218,2 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
24 |
15 |
11 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
19 |
38 |
51 |
60 |
63 |
38 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
13 |
22 |
38 |
56 |
86 |
120 |
152 |
157 |
156 |
149 |
142 |
131 |
|
|
Gas |
|
2 |
3 |
8 |
14 |
22 |
40 |
54 |
73 |
77 |
72 |
62 |
45 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
4 |
8 |
15 |
30 |
51 |
70 |
98 |
128 |
160 |
183 |
201 |
222 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
3 |
5 |
11 |
15 |
18 |
25 |
35 |
46 |
59 |
74 |
89 |
|
|
Total |
|
62 |
88 |
128 |
178 |
241 |
289 |
356 |
414 |
459 |
476 |
479 |
486 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
30 |
51 |
71 |
96 |
122 |
102 |
79 |
57 |
39 |
40 |
26 |
12 |
|
|
Oil |
|
15 |
26 |
39 |
55 |
76 |
91 |
102 |
95 |
90 |
60 |
45 |
31 |
|
|
Gas |
|
3 |
5 |
14 |
28 |
48 |
74 |
98 |
108 |
101 |
88 |
81 |
68 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
15 |
27 |
43 |
65 |
74 |
65 |
48 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
24 |
23 |
27 |
33 |
44 |
59 |
83 |
108 |
123 |
132 |
132 |
142 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
3 |
6 |
15 |
26 |
44 |
79 |
130 |
191 |
261 |
343 |
435 |
|
|
Total |
|
74 |
108 |
160 |
231 |
323 |
385 |
467 |
540 |
609 |
655 |
692 |
736 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,5 |
3,7 |
4,8 |
5,6 |
6,1 |
6,5 |
6,9 |
7,2 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,1 |
3,1 |
4,1 |
5,0 |
5,9 |
6,5 |
7,0 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
1,0 |
1,7 |
2,7 |
3,8 |
4,8 |
5,7 |
6,5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
17,8 |
42,7 |
76,3 |
120,8 |
173,1 |
225,8 |
275,0 |
317,9 |
353,7 |
381,9 |
401,6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
438 |
435 |
434 |
433 |
432 |
431 |
431 |
430 |
429 |
428 |
428 |
428 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
608 |
606 |
609 |
611 |
613 |
615 |
617 |
618 |
619 |
621 |
622 |
624 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
37 |
68 |
99 |
117 |
134 |
138 |
127 |
117 |
|
|
Forest |
|
535 |
522 |
512 |
524 |
535 |
535 |
535 |
544 |
552 |
556 |
555 |
555 |
|
|
Others |
|
583 |
601 |
609 |
579 |
547 |
515 |
483 |
456 |
429 |
421 |
431 |
441 |
|
|
Total |
|
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,15 |
1,78 |
2,73 |
3,90 |
5,26 |
5,36 |
5,19 |
4,65 |
4,06 |
3,29 |
2,47 |
1,52 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,37 |
0,26 |
0,22 |
-0,13 |
-0,12 |
-0,04 |
0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,09 |
-0,10 |
-0,04 |
0,01 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,53 |
2,03 |
2,95 |
3,77 |
5,14 |
5,32 |
5,22 |
4,62 |
3,97 |
3,19 |
2,43 |
1,53 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
113 |
125 |
152 |
185 |
225 |
226 |
227 |
200 |
167 |
147 |
130 |
110 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,3 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,4 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,7 |
25,3 |
32,3 |
35,4 |
35,8 |
22,8 |
16,3 |
13,4 |
11,6 |
8,8 |
6,6 |
5,1 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
5 |
18 |
45 |
92 |
153 |
224 |
292 |
292 |
285 |
275 |
262 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
23 |
30 |
35 |
39 |
43 |
46 |
48 |
46 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
4 |
7 |
12 |
19 |
28 |
42 |
50 |
55 |
48 |
35 |
33 |
37 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
235 |
270 |
340 |
422 |
564 |
663 |
784 |
853 |
896 |
914 |
866 |
777 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
33 |
37 |
47 |
58 |
70 |
75 |
82 |
82 |
83 |
76 |
63 |
41 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
9 |
12 |
17 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
26 |
22 |
18 |
15 |
12 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
ALM |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
1192 |
1519 |
1875 |
2241 |
2557 |
2791 |
2980 |
3089 |
3115 |
3064 |
2934 |
2727 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,9 |
2,7 |
4,4 |
9,8 |
20,0 |
34,3 |
53,5 |
76,5 |
98,7 |
122,5 |
147,2 |
173,1 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
3,8 |
5,1 |
7,5 |
13,3 |
22,8 |
36,7 |
55,3 |
76,5 |
98,7 |
122,5 |
147,2 |
173,1 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
14 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
1 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
17 |
24 |
35 |
52 |
75 |
97 |
114 |
122 |
123 |
122 |
125 |
109 |
|
|
Gas |
|
4 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
27 |
35 |
43 |
54 |
56 |
49 |
42 |
36 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
3 |
5 |
9 |
17 |
33 |
54 |
81 |
111 |
140 |
165 |
188 |
215 |
|
|
Others |
|
0 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
21 |
33 |
44 |
59 |
80 |
96 |
118 |
|
|
Total |
|
39 |
52 |
73 |
106 |
157 |
217 |
279 |
336 |
379 |
418 |
452 |
478 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
5 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
16 |
24 |
26 |
24 |
18 |
12 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
Oil |
|
21 |
31 |
40 |
53 |
69 |
81 |
90 |
89 |
77 |
54 |
43 |
28 |
|
|
Gas |
|
8 |
14 |
23 |
37 |
65 |
91 |
101 |
107 |
92 |
78 |
69 |
63 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
23 |
30 |
38 |
40 |
40 |
35 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
14 |
13 |
17 |
24 |
36 |
50 |
62 |
81 |
104 |
134 |
153 |
153 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
2 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
21 |
44 |
87 |
150 |
236 |
326 |
406 |
508 |
|
|
Total |
|
49 |
68 |
96 |
139 |
213 |
301 |
389 |
480 |
565 |
644 |
717 |
791 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,7 |
0,9 |
1,2 |
1,4 |
1,4 |
1,5 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
1,0 |
1,5 |
2,2 |
3,0 |
3,9 |
4,8 |
5,6 |
6,1 |
6,5 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
0,8 |
1,5 |
2,4 |
3,4 |
4,5 |
5,4 |
6,2 |
6,8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
16,4 |
35,6 |
57,1 |
83,8 |
118,2 |
157,6 |
197,8 |
234,3 |
263,9 |
286,7 |
304,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
371 |
385 |
384 |
383 |
382 |
381 |
381 |
380 |
379 |
379 |
378 |
378 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
1680 |
1673 |
1685 |
1695 |
1702 |
1708 |
1714 |
1718 |
1722 |
1726 |
1730 |
1733 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
90 |
165 |
240 |
282 |
324 |
333 |
308 |
284 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1745 |
1711 |
1690 |
1683 |
1680 |
1681 |
1682 |
1681 |
1680 |
1678 |
1676 |
1674 |
|
|
Others |
|
1684 |
1710 |
1720 |
1676 |
1625 |
1544 |
1463 |
1419 |
1374 |
1364 |
1387 |
1411 |
|
|
Total |
|
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
0,72 |
1,01 |
1,41 |
1,92 |
2,82 |
3,62 |
3,94 |
3,84 |
3,26 |
2,48 |
1,94 |
1,48 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,73 |
0,82 |
0,60 |
0,36 |
0,25 |
0,19 |
0,14 |
0,12 |
0,10 |
0,08 |
0,06 |
0,03 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,45 |
1,83 |
2,01 |
2,28 |
3,07 |
3,81 |
4,07 |
3,96 |
3,36 |
2,56 |
2,00 |
1,51 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
77 |
85 |
98 |
114 |
133 |
150 |
162 |
155 |
141 |
123 |
105 |
90 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
1,2 |
1,3 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,5 |
0,5 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
10,5 |
12,8 |
13,7 |
14,6 |
15,0 |
15,7 |
16,8 |
15,7 |
13,5 |
11,3 |
8,8 |
6,8 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
2 |
15 |
39 |
81 |
139 |
184 |
205 |
210 |
210 |
206 |
196 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
4 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
14 |
19 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
19 |
32 |
40 |
42 |
37 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
396 |
404 |
431 |
474 |
533 |
608 |
671 |
760 |
858 |
938 |
992 |
1035 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
48 |
55 |
63 |
74 |
83 |
92 |
98 |
95 |
87 |
69 |
58 |
50 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|