World |
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
5262 |
6117 |
6888 |
7617 |
8182 |
8531 |
8704 |
8667 |
8463 |
8125 |
7658 |
7056 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
20,9 |
26,8 |
36,8 |
57,0 |
91,3 |
135,4 |
187,1 |
254,1 |
322,9 |
393,2 |
469,6 |
550,0 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
25,7 |
33,4 |
45,7 |
67,2 |
98,7 |
139,0 |
186,4 |
246,8 |
313,2 |
382,0 |
456,6 |
535,0 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
38 |
25 |
20 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
42 |
57 |
67 |
75 |
84 |
88 |
74 |
47 |
39 |
25 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
111 |
125 |
157 |
190 |
241 |
292 |
374 |
453 |
491 |
525 |
525 |
510 |
|
|
Gas |
|
41 |
47 |
62 |
76 |
100 |
132 |
161 |
215 |
235 |
253 |
284 |
300 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
35 |
46 |
64 |
101 |
161 |
242 |
344 |
464 |
573 |
668 |
749 |
800 |
|
|
Others |
|
8 |
11 |
18 |
29 |
45 |
55 |
67 |
86 |
106 |
124 |
143 |
152 |
|
|
Total |
|
275 |
311 |
387 |
487 |
640 |
815 |
1024 |
1265 |
1444 |
1595 |
1705 |
1765 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
91 |
104 |
130 |
167 |
220 |
266 |
272 |
261 |
259 |
214 |
153 |
84 |
|
|
Oil |
|
128 |
155 |
172 |
194 |
235 |
279 |
365 |
451 |
479 |
506 |
461 |
391 |
|
|
Gas |
|
71 |
85 |
119 |
164 |
236 |
328 |
449 |
649 |
796 |
916 |
1089 |
1239 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
7 |
8 |
11 |
17 |
30 |
54 |
90 |
128 |
169 |
225 |
282 |
332 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
46 |
44 |
54 |
76 |
107 |
145 |
193 |
243 |
311 |
381 |
409 |
414 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
8 |
13 |
23 |
38 |
61 |
91 |
125 |
165 |
203 |
237 |
264 |
277 |
|
|
Total |
|
352 |
409 |
509 |
657 |
889 |
1163 |
1495 |
1898 |
2217 |
2479 |
2658 |
2737 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,9 |
2,0 |
3,3 |
4,9 |
7,1 |
9,8 |
12,5 |
15,1 |
17,7 |
19,9 |
21,4 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
1,4 |
3,0 |
4,7 |
6,7 |
9,0 |
11,8 |
15,4 |
20,0 |
24,7 |
29,8 |
34,4 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,8 |
4,4 |
6,8 |
10,1 |
14,6 |
21,1 |
29,0 |
38,2 |
49,1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
75,3 |
162,9 |
265,1 |
390,3 |
549,0 |
744,1 |
981,7 |
1257,3 |
1555,3 |
1863,7 |
2170,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
1459 |
1466 |
1462 |
1457 |
1454 |
1448 |
1442 |
1436 |
1429 |
1424 |
1422 |
1420 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
3389 |
3404 |
3429 |
3446 |
3458 |
3478 |
3498 |
3525 |
3552 |
3568 |
3572 |
3576 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
158 |
288 |
418 |
492 |
566 |
581 |
538 |
495 |
|
|
Forest |
|
4296 |
4237 |
4173 |
4164 |
4164 |
4177 |
4190 |
4194 |
4199 |
4202 |
4203 |
4204 |
|
|
Others |
|
3805 |
3842 |
3886 |
3807 |
3715 |
3558 |
3400 |
3301 |
3203 |
3173 |
3213 |
3253 |
|
|
Total |
|
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
5,99 |
6,90 |
8,49 |
10,66 |
14,00 |
17,56 |
21,45 |
26,11 |
29,08 |
30,58 |
31,14 |
30,31 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
1,11 |
1,07 |
1,04 |
0,26 |
0,12 |
0,05 |
-0,02 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,01 |
0,00 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
7,10 |
7,97 |
9,54 |
10,91 |
14,12 |
17,61 |
21,42 |
26,08 |
29,04 |
30,55 |
31,13 |
30,31 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
310 |
323 |
363 |
419 |
496 |
538 |
566 |
555 |
531 |
497 |
474 |
436 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
6,7 |
7,0 |
6,1 |
6,1 |
6,2 |
6,3 |
6,4 |
6,3 |
6,3 |
6,2 |
6,2 |
6,2 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
70,9 |
69,0 |
64,3 |
60,3 |
63,9 |
71,9 |
69,0 |
59,1 |
51,2 |
45,7 |
43,1 |
40,5 |
|
|
CFC/HFC/HCFC |
MtC eq. |
1672 |
883 |
791 |
337 |
369 |
482 |
566 |
654 |
659 |
654 |
639 |
614 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
32 |
25 |
31 |
43 |
61 |
77 |
89 |
97 |
106 |
114 |
119 |
115 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
38 |
40 |
43 |
48 |
66 |
99 |
119 |
127 |
113 |
88 |
84 |
95 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
879 |
877 |
986 |
1123 |
1344 |
1616 |
2026 |
2399 |
2717 |
3033 |
3199 |
3261 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
139 |
141 |
160 |
178 |
200 |
237 |
297 |
370 |
416 |
459 |
474 |
484 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
31 |
32 |
38 |
46 |
59 |
72 |
89 |
108 |
118 |
124 |
129 |
133 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
OECD90 |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
859 |
919 |
965 |
1007 |
1043 |
1069 |
1081 |
1084 |
1089 |
1098 |
1108 |
1110 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
16,4 |
20,6 |
25,6 |
31,6 |
38,7 |
46,8 |
55,7 |
65,7 |
77,2 |
90,8 |
106,6 |
124,3 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
14,1 |
17,8 |
22,1 |
27,4 |
33,7 |
40,8 |
48,6 |
57,4 |
67,6 |
79,7 |
93,6 |
109,4 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
13 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
66 |
69 |
77 |
75 |
73 |
71 |
79 |
86 |
87 |
94 |
100 |
105 |
|
|
Gas |
|
22 |
28 |
33 |
34 |
38 |
41 |
38 |
33 |
30 |
25 |
22 |
18 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
22 |
28 |
35 |
45 |
58 |
73 |
89 |
106 |
124 |
139 |
153 |
165 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
16 |
23 |
27 |
31 |
32 |
|
|
Total |
|
124 |
138 |
153 |
162 |
178 |
195 |
218 |
241 |
264 |
284 |
305 |
321 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
38 |
38 |
45 |
52 |
57 |
55 |
40 |
26 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
15 |
|
|
Oil |
|
72 |
84 |
83 |
75 |
67 |
64 |
76 |
80 |
82 |
91 |
99 |
99 |
|
|
Gas |
|
33 |
45 |
55 |
66 |
78 |
87 |
101 |
118 |
140 |
139 |
156 |
162 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
6 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
15 |
26 |
41 |
53 |
59 |
68 |
68 |
74 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
6 |
7 |
7 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
29 |
32 |
36 |
40 |
43 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
4 |
5 |
9 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
28 |
35 |
44 |
49 |
54 |
57 |
|
|
Total |
|
159 |
186 |
206 |
227 |
252 |
278 |
315 |
345 |
381 |
406 |
437 |
453 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,2 |
1,7 |
2,3 |
2,9 |
3,3 |
3,7 |
4,0 |
4,2 |
4,4 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,5 |
3,2 |
3,9 |
4,5 |
5,3 |
6,1 |
6,9 |
7,8 |
8,8 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,0 |
2,8 |
3,7 |
4,7 |
5,9 |
7,3 |
8,7 |
10,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
30,1 |
63,7 |
99,8 |
137,4 |
175,8 |
214,5 |
253,8 |
294,7 |
337,5 |
382,5 |
428,6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
381 |
380 |
377 |
376 |
375 |
372 |
368 |
364 |
359 |
356 |
356 |
355 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
760 |
763 |
771 |
774 |
776 |
787 |
797 |
818 |
839 |
849 |
847 |
846 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
24 |
44 |
63 |
74 |
86 |
88 |
81 |
75 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1050 |
1053 |
1052 |
1053 |
1056 |
1062 |
1068 |
1061 |
1054 |
1050 |
1049 |
1048 |
|
|
Others |
|
838 |
833 |
828 |
814 |
798 |
765 |
733 |
712 |
691 |
685 |
695 |
705 |
|
|
Total |
|
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,49 |
3,67 |
3,84 |
3,87 |
3,93 |
3,96 |
4,17 |
4,28 |
4,61 |
4,58 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,04 |
0,02 |
0,00 |
-0,02 |
-0,04 |
0,00 |
0,05 |
0,06 |
0,04 |
0,01 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,52 |
3,69 |
3,84 |
3,84 |
3,89 |
3,97 |
4,22 |
4,34 |
4,65 |
4,59 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
73 |
74 |
73 |
73 |
77 |
81 |
79 |
75 |
73 |
66 |
62 |
56 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
22,7 |
17,0 |
8,9 |
1,7 |
0,8 |
0,5 |
0,8 |
1,5 |
2,1 |
3,4 |
4,9 |
5,8 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
19 |
58 |
110 |
108 |
115 |
118 |
122 |
123 |
123 |
124 |
125 |
125 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
18 |
13 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
23 |
23 |
14 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
179 |
161 |
172 |
176 |
173 |
184 |
205 |
214 |
217 |
228 |
236 |
234 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
42 |
36 |
37 |
35 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
33 |
36 |
39 |
43 |
44 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
13 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
REF |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
413 |
419 |
427 |
433 |
435 |
433 |
423 |
409 |
392 |
374 |
357 |
339 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,1 |
0,8 |
1,0 |
2,1 |
5,4 |
9,4 |
12,6 |
16,2 |
20,0 |
24,4 |
29,2 |
34,4 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
2,6 |
2,2 |
2,5 |
3,7 |
6,0 |
9,4 |
12,6 |
16,2 |
20,0 |
24,4 |
29,2 |
34,4 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
9 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
15 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
22 |
28 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
Gas |
|
14 |
10 |
12 |
16 |
19 |
20 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
6 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
15 |
21 |
27 |
33 |
38 |
42 |
46 |
49 |
|
|
Others |
|
7 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Total |
|
50 |
35 |
38 |
47 |
64 |
71 |
79 |
86 |
90 |
94 |
97 |
97 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
19 |
13 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
25 |
23 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
|
|
Oil |
|
20 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
16 |
19 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
23 |
19 |
|
|
Gas |
|
27 |
21 |
25 |
29 |
36 |
38 |
40 |
45 |
49 |
60 |
71 |
92 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
11 |
16 |
20 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
28 |
32 |
33 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
23 |
|
|
Total |
|
70 |
51 |
51 |
63 |
85 |
98 |
112 |
138 |
162 |
183 |
193 |
211 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
1,2 |
1,4 |
1,7 |
1,9 |
2,1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,8 |
0,9 |
1,1 |
1,4 |
1,7 |
2,0 |
2,2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
1,4 |
1,8 |
2,2 |
2,6 |
3,1 |
3,7 |
4,4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
11,0 |
20,7 |
31,0 |
42,9 |
56,6 |
70,5 |
86,1 |
104,0 |
123,2 |
143,1 |
163,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
268 |
266 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
264 |
263 |
262 |
262 |
261 |
260 |
260 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
341 |
361 |
364 |
366 |
367 |
368 |
370 |
371 |
371 |
372 |
373 |
374 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
21 |
20 |
|
|
Forest |
|
966 |
950 |
918 |
904 |
894 |
899 |
905 |
909 |
912 |
916 |
922 |
927 |
|
|
Others |
|
701 |
698 |
728 |
738 |
745 |
733 |
722 |
715 |
709 |
703 |
700 |
696 |
|
|
Total |
|
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,85 |
1,02 |
1,35 |
1,46 |
1,54 |
1,86 |
1,94 |
2,06 |
2,05 |
2,24 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,18 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
-0,08 |
-0,15 |
-0,12 |
-0,09 |
-0,07 |
-0,06 |
-0,05 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
1,03 |
1,03 |
1,34 |
1,39 |
1,39 |
1,74 |
1,85 |
1,99 |
1,98 |
2,19 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
47 |
39 |
42 |
50 |
59 |
59 |
53 |
52 |
51 |
51 |
51 |
50 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,0 |
11,0 |
7,2 |
4,8 |
3,9 |
4,5 |
4,1 |
4,2 |
3,3 |
3,3 |
3,1 |
3,3 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
4 |
8 |
19 |
29 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
31 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
7 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
14 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
8 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
69 |
41 |
46 |
52 |
82 |
97 |
110 |
115 |
118 |
110 |
99 |
81 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
16 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
26 |
32 |
38 |
55 |
78 |
96 |
93 |
99 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
ASIA |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
2798 |
3261 |
3620 |
3937 |
4147 |
4238 |
4220 |
4085 |
3867 |
3589 |
3258 |
2882 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,5 |
2,7 |
5,8 |
13,5 |
27,2 |
44,9 |
65,3 |
95,8 |
126,9 |
155,5 |
186,5 |
218,2 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
5,3 |
8,3 |
13,5 |
22,8 |
36,2 |
52,2 |
70,0 |
96,8 |
126,9 |
155,5 |
186,5 |
218,2 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
24 |
15 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
19 |
37 |
52 |
63 |
71 |
74 |
56 |
37 |
28 |
17 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
13 |
22 |
37 |
55 |
83 |
116 |
162 |
188 |
201 |
213 |
211 |
198 |
|
|
Gas |
|
2 |
3 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
29 |
43 |
87 |
105 |
111 |
117 |
119 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
4 |
7 |
14 |
27 |
48 |
79 |
118 |
167 |
212 |
253 |
285 |
298 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
2 |
6 |
10 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
31 |
38 |
43 |
52 |
59 |
|
|
Total |
|
62 |
87 |
125 |
174 |
239 |
318 |
404 |
510 |
585 |
638 |
668 |
676 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
30 |
48 |
67 |
90 |
124 |
165 |
176 |
163 |
145 |
116 |
79 |
42 |
|
|
Oil |
|
15 |
26 |
38 |
55 |
79 |
108 |
152 |
170 |
169 |
172 |
139 |
103 |
|
|
Gas |
|
3 |
5 |
15 |
29 |
49 |
77 |
116 |
212 |
287 |
332 |
381 |
429 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
14 |
23 |
36 |
56 |
87 |
121 |
143 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
24 |
22 |
28 |
37 |
47 |
59 |
80 |
109 |
127 |
142 |
151 |
153 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
3 |
5 |
12 |
21 |
30 |
42 |
56 |
69 |
81 |
91 |
96 |
|
|
Total |
|
74 |
105 |
156 |
226 |
327 |
453 |
588 |
746 |
853 |
929 |
962 |
965 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,8 |
1,5 |
2,4 |
3,6 |
5,3 |
7,0 |
8,6 |
10,0 |
11,2 |
12,1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,2 |
3,3 |
4,8 |
6,5 |
8,2 |
9,9 |
11,3 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
1,0 |
1,8 |
2,9 |
5,0 |
7,9 |
11,2 |
15,1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
17,8 |
42,7 |
76,5 |
123,2 |
189,5 |
276,1 |
379,6 |
494,4 |
614,1 |
732,3 |
843,7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
438 |
435 |
434 |
433 |
432 |
431 |
431 |
430 |
429 |
428 |
428 |
428 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
608 |
606 |
609 |
611 |
613 |
615 |
617 |
618 |
619 |
621 |
622 |
624 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
37 |
68 |
99 |
117 |
134 |
138 |
127 |
117 |
|
|
Forest |
|
535 |
522 |
512 |
524 |
535 |
535 |
535 |
544 |
552 |
556 |
555 |
555 |
|
|
Others |
|
583 |
601 |
609 |
579 |
547 |
515 |
483 |
456 |
429 |
421 |
431 |
441 |
|
|
Total |
|
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,15 |
1,78 |
2,73 |
3,94 |
5,65 |
7,77 |
9,58 |
11,13 |
11,96 |
12,16 |
11,61 |
10,70 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,37 |
0,26 |
0,22 |
-0,13 |
-0,12 |
-0,04 |
0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,09 |
-0,10 |
-0,04 |
0,01 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,53 |
2,03 |
2,95 |
3,81 |
5,54 |
7,72 |
9,60 |
11,09 |
11,87 |
12,07 |
11,57 |
10,71 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
113 |
125 |
151 |
182 |
226 |
242 |
254 |
238 |
216 |
198 |
183 |
162 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,3 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,7 |
25,3 |
31,2 |
36,0 |
40,5 |
47,4 |
42,2 |
31,7 |
24,2 |
19,7 |
17,1 |
15,1 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
5 |
18 |
45 |
92 |
153 |
224 |
292 |
292 |
285 |
275 |
262 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
23 |
30 |
35 |
39 |
43 |
46 |
48 |
46 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
4 |
7 |
12 |
19 |
28 |
42 |
50 |
55 |
48 |
35 |
33 |
37 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
235 |
270 |
345 |
425 |
554 |
701 |
928 |
1103 |
1227 |
1318 |
1390 |
1372 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
33 |
37 |
46 |
54 |
63 |
77 |
107 |
130 |
144 |
155 |
155 |
150 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
9 |
12 |
16 |
23 |
31 |
40 |
49 |
53 |
55 |
54 |
54 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
ALM |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
1192 |
1519 |
1875 |
2241 |
2557 |
2791 |
2980 |
3089 |
3115 |
3064 |
2934 |
2727 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,9 |
2,7 |
4,4 |
9,8 |
20,0 |
34,3 |
53,5 |
76,5 |
98,7 |
122,5 |
147,2 |
173,1 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
3,8 |
5,1 |
7,5 |
13,3 |
22,8 |
36,7 |
55,3 |
76,5 |
98,7 |
122,5 |
147,2 |
173,1 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
14 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
1 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
17 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
17 |
24 |
33 |
49 |
70 |
90 |
111 |
151 |
174 |
190 |
186 |
179 |
|
|
Gas |
|
4 |
6 |
11 |
16 |
26 |
43 |
63 |
83 |
91 |
109 |
138 |
159 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
3 |
5 |
9 |
19 |
40 |
68 |
110 |
158 |
199 |
234 |
266 |
288 |
|
|
Others |
|
0 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
9 |
14 |
20 |
26 |
31 |
38 |
45 |
46 |
|
|
Total |
|
39 |
51 |
71 |
104 |
159 |
231 |
324 |
428 |
506 |
579 |
635 |
672 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
5 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
19 |
23 |
35 |
47 |
71 |
59 |
36 |
8 |
|
|
Oil |
|
21 |
31 |
39 |
51 |
72 |
91 |
119 |
175 |
197 |
212 |
199 |
170 |
|
|
Gas |
|
8 |
14 |
24 |
41 |
73 |
126 |
192 |
273 |
321 |
385 |
482 |
555 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
27 |
38 |
51 |
68 |
92 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
14 |
14 |
17 |
24 |
36 |
53 |
70 |
86 |
121 |
168 |
183 |
182 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
2 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
21 |
32 |
47 |
62 |
75 |
88 |
98 |
102 |
|
|
Total |
|
49 |
67 |
96 |
142 |
225 |
335 |
481 |
670 |
822 |
961 |
1065 |
1109 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
1,5 |
2,1 |
2,6 |
2,9 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
1,0 |
1,5 |
2,2 |
3,1 |
4,3 |
6,0 |
8,0 |
10,1 |
12,1 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
0,9 |
1,6 |
2,9 |
4,8 |
7,5 |
10,7 |
14,5 |
19,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
16,4 |
35,7 |
57,8 |
86,8 |
127,1 |
183,0 |
262,2 |
364,1 |
480,4 |
605,8 |
734,6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
371 |
385 |
384 |
383 |
382 |
381 |
381 |
380 |
379 |
379 |
378 |
378 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
1680 |
1673 |
1685 |
1695 |
1702 |
1708 |
1714 |
1718 |
1722 |
1726 |
1730 |
1733 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
90 |
165 |
240 |
282 |
324 |
333 |
308 |
284 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1745 |
1711 |
1690 |
1683 |
1680 |
1681 |
1682 |
1681 |
1680 |
1678 |
1676 |
1674 |
|
|
Others |
|
1684 |
1710 |
1720 |
1676 |
1625 |
1544 |
1463 |
1419 |
1374 |
1364 |
1387 |
1411 |
|
|
Total |
|
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
0,72 |
1,01 |
1,43 |
2,03 |
3,15 |
4,47 |
6,41 |
9,16 |
11,01 |
12,07 |
12,88 |
12,78 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,73 |
0,82 |
0,60 |
0,36 |
0,25 |
0,19 |
0,14 |
0,12 |
0,10 |
0,08 |
0,06 |
0,03 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,45 |
1,83 |
2,03 |
2,39 |
3,40 |
4,66 |
6,54 |
9,28 |
11,11 |
12,15 |
12,93 |
12,82 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
77 |
85 |
98 |
114 |
134 |
155 |
180 |
190 |
192 |
181 |
179 |
168 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
1,2 |
1,3 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
10,5 |
12,8 |
14,0 |
14,7 |
15,8 |
16,5 |
18,8 |
18,6 |
18,7 |
16,4 |
14,9 |
13,3 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
2 |
15 |
39 |
81 |
139 |
184 |
205 |
210 |
210 |
206 |
196 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
4 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
14 |
19 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
19 |
32 |
40 |
42 |
37 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
396 |
404 |
423 |
469 |
535 |
634 |
782 |
967 |
1154 |
1378 |
1473 |
1573 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
48 |
55 |
61 |
70 |
82 |
98 |
122 |
152 |
159 |
169 |
184 |
191 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
17 |
22 |
30 |
40 |
45 |
49 |
53 |
56 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|