World |
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
5262 |
6117 |
6888 |
7617 |
8182 |
8531 |
8704 |
8667 |
8463 |
8125 |
7658 |
7056 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
20,9 |
26,7 |
37,9 |
56,5 |
89,1 |
135,2 |
181,3 |
247,6 |
313,8 |
383,3 |
455,9 |
528,5 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
25,7 |
33,3 |
47,1 |
66,6 |
96,6 |
138,9 |
181,0 |
240,7 |
304,2 |
372,2 |
443,0 |
513,9 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
38 |
28 |
22 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
42 |
58 |
59 |
67 |
73 |
70 |
48 |
35 |
29 |
26 |
24 |
15 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
111 |
125 |
160 |
204 |
254 |
303 |
357 |
396 |
403 |
365 |
308 |
254 |
|
|
Gas |
|
41 |
48 |
67 |
85 |
104 |
135 |
164 |
199 |
210 |
202 |
158 |
96 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
35 |
47 |
70 |
107 |
164 |
232 |
311 |
414 |
536 |
647 |
745 |
859 |
|
|
Others |
|
8 |
10 |
20 |
38 |
58 |
84 |
122 |
169 |
234 |
320 |
422 |
525 |
|
|
Total |
|
275 |
316 |
398 |
517 |
662 |
830 |
1005 |
1213 |
1413 |
1560 |
1657 |
1749 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
91 |
105 |
120 |
157 |
194 |
227 |
210 |
182 |
192 |
213 |
200 |
192 |
|
|
Oil |
|
128 |
155 |
172 |
198 |
225 |
250 |
281 |
333 |
326 |
253 |
184 |
138 |
|
|
Gas |
|
71 |
85 |
128 |
178 |
250 |
320 |
378 |
445 |
482 |
456 |
398 |
350 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
7 |
9 |
12 |
19 |
34 |
55 |
84 |
126 |
185 |
247 |
306 |
358 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
46 |
47 |
63 |
87 |
120 |
155 |
204 |
251 |
315 |
394 |
438 |
475 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
8 |
13 |
29 |
52 |
78 |
134 |
240 |
371 |
534 |
730 |
945 |
1172 |
|
|
Total |
|
352 |
415 |
524 |
689 |
901 |
1141 |
1397 |
1707 |
2035 |
2292 |
2472 |
2683 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,9 |
2,0 |
3,2 |
4,8 |
6,7 |
9,0 |
11,1 |
12,9 |
14,8 |
17,0 |
19,0 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
1,4 |
3,0 |
4,7 |
6,7 |
8,9 |
11,4 |
14,2 |
17,6 |
20,8 |
23,4 |
25,2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,7 |
1,6 |
2,9 |
4,7 |
7,1 |
10,3 |
14,1 |
18,6 |
23,4 |
28,0 |
31,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
75,3 |
162,0 |
262,8 |
383,6 |
528,0 |
688,0 |
859,3 |
1041,9 |
1224,6 |
1390,9 |
1537,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
1459 |
1466 |
1462 |
1457 |
1454 |
1448 |
1442 |
1436 |
1429 |
1424 |
1422 |
1420 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
3389 |
3404 |
3429 |
3446 |
3458 |
3478 |
3498 |
3525 |
3552 |
3568 |
3572 |
3576 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
74 |
158 |
288 |
418 |
492 |
566 |
581 |
538 |
495 |
|
|
Forest |
|
4296 |
4237 |
4173 |
4164 |
4164 |
4177 |
4190 |
4194 |
4199 |
4202 |
4203 |
4204 |
|
|
Others |
|
3805 |
3842 |
3886 |
3807 |
3715 |
3558 |
3400 |
3301 |
3203 |
3173 |
3213 |
3253 |
|
|
Total |
|
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
12949 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
5,99 |
6,90 |
8,31 |
10,56 |
13,21 |
15,51 |
16,47 |
17,84 |
18,73 |
17,86 |
15,46 |
13,83 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
1,11 |
1,07 |
1,04 |
0,26 |
0,12 |
0,05 |
-0,02 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,01 |
0,00 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
7,10 |
7,97 |
9,36 |
10,81 |
13,33 |
15,56 |
16,45 |
17,81 |
18,70 |
17,83 |
15,44 |
13,83 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
310 |
323 |
362 |
418 |
486 |
517 |
531 |
502 |
477 |
451 |
400 |
347 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
6,7 |
7,0 |
6,1 |
6,1 |
6,2 |
6,3 |
6,3 |
6,2 |
6,1 |
6,0 |
5,9 |
5,8 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
70,9 |
69,0 |
65,8 |
62,2 |
61,8 |
59,6 |
49,4 |
45,4 |
43,2 |
40,4 |
35,9 |
31,4 |
|
|
CFC/HFC/HCFC |
MtC eq. |
1672 |
883 |
791 |
337 |
369 |
482 |
566 |
654 |
659 |
654 |
639 |
614 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
32 |
25 |
31 |
43 |
61 |
77 |
89 |
97 |
106 |
114 |
119 |
115 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
38 |
40 |
43 |
48 |
66 |
99 |
119 |
127 |
113 |
88 |
84 |
95 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
879 |
877 |
1022 |
1218 |
1412 |
1659 |
1925 |
2173 |
2380 |
2548 |
2568 |
2532 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
139 |
141 |
164 |
194 |
211 |
235 |
259 |
282 |
276 |
234 |
188 |
137 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
31 |
32 |
39 |
50 |
60 |
71 |
80 |
90 |
95 |
90 |
81 |
74 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
OECD90 |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
859 |
919 |
965 |
1007 |
1043 |
1069 |
1081 |
1084 |
1089 |
1098 |
1108 |
1110 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
16,4 |
20,5 |
25,3 |
31,0 |
38,0 |
46,1 |
54,1 |
65,5 |
76,9 |
90,3 |
105,7 |
121,1 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
14,1 |
17,7 |
21,8 |
26,9 |
33,0 |
40,1 |
47,2 |
57,2 |
67,3 |
79,2 |
92,9 |
106,6 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
13 |
13 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
66 |
68 |
73 |
78 |
77 |
75 |
70 |
67 |
55 |
45 |
36 |
27 |
|
|
Gas |
|
22 |
28 |
35 |
40 |
44 |
44 |
43 |
41 |
40 |
36 |
24 |
12 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
22 |
28 |
38 |
50 |
62 |
70 |
81 |
97 |
117 |
132 |
150 |
172 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
12 |
17 |
24 |
34 |
50 |
70 |
93 |
109 |
|
|
Total |
|
124 |
138 |
157 |
180 |
197 |
207 |
218 |
240 |
262 |
282 |
303 |
320 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
38 |
36 |
39 |
42 |
44 |
32 |
20 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Oil |
|
72 |
82 |
79 |
80 |
75 |
67 |
58 |
55 |
43 |
35 |
28 |
25 |
|
|
Gas |
|
33 |
45 |
60 |
76 |
87 |
96 |
97 |
107 |
118 |
118 |
108 |
113 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
6 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
27 |
38 |
48 |
56 |
60 |
59 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
6 |
9 |
14 |
20 |
27 |
34 |
42 |
44 |
44 |
40 |
41 |
52 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
4 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
35 |
59 |
81 |
114 |
156 |
211 |
246 |
|
|
Total |
|
159 |
184 |
210 |
243 |
269 |
283 |
303 |
335 |
372 |
409 |
450 |
497 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,7 |
1,1 |
1,5 |
2,0 |
2,3 |
2,5 |
2,6 |
2,7 |
2,7 |
2,7 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,8 |
1,6 |
2,4 |
3,2 |
3,9 |
4,6 |
5,2 |
5,7 |
6,2 |
6,5 |
6,8 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,2 |
3,0 |
4,0 |
5,0 |
6,0 |
7,2 |
8,4 |
9,5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
30,1 |
63,4 |
99,6 |
137,7 |
174,0 |
205,5 |
234,1 |
261,8 |
288,1 |
311,7 |
333,4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
381 |
380 |
377 |
376 |
375 |
372 |
368 |
364 |
359 |
356 |
356 |
355 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
760 |
763 |
771 |
774 |
776 |
787 |
797 |
818 |
839 |
849 |
847 |
846 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
24 |
44 |
63 |
74 |
86 |
88 |
81 |
75 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1050 |
1053 |
1052 |
1053 |
1056 |
1062 |
1068 |
1061 |
1054 |
1050 |
1049 |
1048 |
|
|
Others |
|
838 |
833 |
828 |
814 |
798 |
765 |
733 |
712 |
691 |
685 |
695 |
705 |
|
|
Total |
|
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
3029 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,43 |
3,76 |
3,84 |
3,44 |
2,94 |
2,82 |
2,66 |
2,49 |
2,15 |
2,14 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,04 |
0,02 |
0,00 |
-0,02 |
-0,04 |
0,00 |
0,05 |
0,06 |
0,04 |
0,01 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
2,83 |
3,20 |
3,46 |
3,78 |
3,83 |
3,41 |
2,89 |
2,83 |
2,71 |
2,55 |
2,18 |
2,15 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
73 |
74 |
71 |
71 |
71 |
68 |
65 |
63 |
63 |
63 |
62 |
63 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,6 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,3 |
2,2 |
2,2 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
22,7 |
17,0 |
9,7 |
3,7 |
2,3 |
1,5 |
1,1 |
2,2 |
2,0 |
2,7 |
3,1 |
4,4 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
19 |
58 |
110 |
108 |
115 |
118 |
122 |
123 |
123 |
124 |
125 |
125 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
18 |
13 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
23 |
23 |
14 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
179 |
161 |
194 |
218 |
217 |
217 |
214 |
206 |
200 |
186 |
149 |
151 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
42 |
36 |
39 |
41 |
37 |
33 |
28 |
27 |
25 |
21 |
14 |
9 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
13 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
REF |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
413 |
419 |
427 |
433 |
435 |
433 |
423 |
409 |
392 |
374 |
357 |
339 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,1 |
0,8 |
1,5 |
2,9 |
5,3 |
8,8 |
12,4 |
16,2 |
20,0 |
24,4 |
29,3 |
34,2 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
2,6 |
2,2 |
3,1 |
4,3 |
6,0 |
8,8 |
12,4 |
16,2 |
20,0 |
24,4 |
29,3 |
34,2 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
9 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
15 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
15 |
21 |
|
|
Gas |
|
14 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
26 |
29 |
33 |
32 |
25 |
16 |
7 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
6 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
20 |
27 |
32 |
38 |
45 |
51 |
56 |
|
|
Others |
|
7 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
|
|
Total |
|
50 |
38 |
42 |
50 |
59 |
72 |
85 |
92 |
99 |
103 |
108 |
112 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
19 |
15 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
30 |
32 |
26 |
13 |
8 |
17 |
19 |
|
|
Oil |
|
20 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
Gas |
|
27 |
22 |
30 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
50 |
67 |
81 |
79 |
63 |
53 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
21 |
32 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
26 |
37 |
49 |
55 |
|
|
Total |
|
70 |
54 |
58 |
64 |
77 |
99 |
121 |
138 |
151 |
160 |
173 |
187 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,4 |
0,6 |
0,7 |
1,0 |
1,4 |
1,7 |
1,8 |
1,9 |
2,1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,6 |
0,7 |
0,8 |
0,9 |
1,1 |
1,2 |
1,3 |
1,4 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,8 |
1,1 |
1,5 |
1,9 |
2,4 |
3,1 |
3,9 |
4,7 |
5,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
11,0 |
21,0 |
31,4 |
41,9 |
54,7 |
69,5 |
85,4 |
101,6 |
116,5 |
130,3 |
143,3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
268 |
266 |
265 |
265 |
265 |
264 |
263 |
262 |
262 |
261 |
260 |
260 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
341 |
361 |
364 |
366 |
367 |
368 |
370 |
371 |
371 |
372 |
373 |
374 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
11 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
21 |
20 |
|
|
Forest |
|
966 |
950 |
918 |
904 |
894 |
899 |
905 |
909 |
912 |
916 |
922 |
927 |
|
|
Others |
|
701 |
698 |
728 |
738 |
745 |
733 |
722 |
715 |
709 |
703 |
700 |
696 |
|
|
Total |
|
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
2276 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
0,91 |
0,96 |
1,14 |
1,50 |
1,67 |
1,79 |
1,65 |
1,49 |
1,41 |
1,31 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,18 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
-0,08 |
-0,15 |
-0,12 |
-0,09 |
-0,07 |
-0,06 |
-0,05 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,30 |
0,91 |
1,09 |
0,97 |
1,14 |
1,42 |
1,52 |
1,67 |
1,56 |
1,42 |
1,35 |
1,25 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
47 |
39 |
44 |
48 |
55 |
58 |
58 |
62 |
60 |
53 |
46 |
40 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
0,6 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,0 |
11,0 |
7,5 |
4,7 |
3,0 |
3,9 |
3,9 |
3,2 |
2,6 |
2,7 |
2,7 |
1,8 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
4 |
8 |
19 |
29 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
31 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
7 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
14 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
8 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
15 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
69 |
41 |
53 |
61 |
79 |
112 |
151 |
157 |
152 |
128 |
97 |
65 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
16 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
25 |
33 |
41 |
47 |
48 |
42 |
34 |
23 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
ASIA |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
2798 |
3261 |
3620 |
3937 |
4147 |
4238 |
4220 |
4085 |
3867 |
3589 |
3258 |
2882 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,5 |
2,7 |
5,8 |
12,3 |
26,2 |
44,5 |
62,7 |
91,9 |
121,0 |
150,0 |
178,6 |
207,3 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
5,3 |
8,2 |
13,5 |
21,6 |
35,2 |
51,8 |
67,5 |
93,3 |
121,0 |
150,0 |
178,6 |
207,3 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
24 |
17 |
13 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
19 |
36 |
41 |
51 |
59 |
54 |
33 |
26 |
27 |
24 |
22 |
14 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
13 |
20 |
27 |
47 |
69 |
95 |
122 |
140 |
143 |
134 |
114 |
106 |
|
|
Gas |
|
2 |
3 |
7 |
10 |
14 |
22 |
39 |
64 |
73 |
75 |
62 |
37 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
4 |
7 |
12 |
24 |
42 |
67 |
97 |
136 |
186 |
231 |
271 |
318 |
|
|
Others |
|
1 |
2 |
4 |
10 |
16 |
25 |
37 |
54 |
77 |
107 |
144 |
182 |
|
|
Total |
|
62 |
85 |
105 |
150 |
204 |
266 |
330 |
420 |
505 |
570 |
613 |
655 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
30 |
48 |
57 |
79 |
99 |
120 |
114 |
104 |
120 |
126 |
105 |
87 |
|
|
Oil |
|
15 |
24 |
28 |
40 |
57 |
71 |
80 |
93 |
77 |
56 |
43 |
41 |
|
|
Gas |
|
3 |
5 |
12 |
22 |
37 |
54 |
81 |
109 |
116 |
112 |
96 |
74 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
15 |
26 |
44 |
71 |
102 |
138 |
173 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
24 |
22 |
27 |
35 |
48 |
64 |
82 |
106 |
133 |
156 |
158 |
163 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
1 |
3 |
6 |
14 |
23 |
42 |
75 |
122 |
179 |
239 |
308 |
391 |
|
|
Total |
|
74 |
102 |
131 |
193 |
272 |
366 |
459 |
578 |
697 |
791 |
849 |
928 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,8 |
1,4 |
2,2 |
3,2 |
4,4 |
5,5 |
6,5 |
7,7 |
9,0 |
10,1 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,7 |
1,1 |
1,7 |
2,4 |
3,2 |
4,1 |
4,9 |
5,4 |
5,9 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,4 |
0,8 |
1,3 |
2,2 |
3,2 |
4,4 |
5,5 |
6,5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
17,8 |
40,2 |
67,9 |
104,7 |
153,3 |
210,3 |
271,8 |
337,0 |
403,5 |
464,5 |
516,7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
438 |
435 |
434 |
433 |
432 |
431 |
431 |
430 |
429 |
428 |
428 |
428 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
608 |
606 |
609 |
611 |
613 |
615 |
617 |
618 |
619 |
621 |
622 |
624 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
37 |
68 |
99 |
117 |
134 |
138 |
127 |
117 |
|
|
Forest |
|
535 |
522 |
512 |
524 |
535 |
535 |
535 |
544 |
552 |
556 |
555 |
555 |
|
|
Others |
|
583 |
601 |
609 |
579 |
547 |
515 |
483 |
456 |
429 |
421 |
431 |
441 |
|
|
Total |
|
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
2164 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
1,15 |
1,78 |
2,22 |
3,23 |
4,39 |
5,49 |
5,93 |
6,38 |
6,78 |
6,70 |
5,63 |
4,85 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,37 |
0,26 |
0,22 |
-0,13 |
-0,12 |
-0,04 |
0,03 |
-0,03 |
-0,09 |
-0,10 |
-0,04 |
0,01 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,53 |
2,03 |
2,44 |
3,10 |
4,27 |
5,44 |
5,96 |
6,35 |
6,69 |
6,61 |
5,59 |
4,86 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
113 |
125 |
148 |
180 |
220 |
230 |
237 |
213 |
194 |
179 |
161 |
143 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
2,3 |
2,6 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,5 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,4 |
2,3 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
17,7 |
25,3 |
27,2 |
29,7 |
31,4 |
30,2 |
20,9 |
16,8 |
15,4 |
14,3 |
12,9 |
11,9 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
5 |
18 |
45 |
92 |
153 |
224 |
292 |
292 |
285 |
275 |
262 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
23 |
30 |
35 |
39 |
43 |
46 |
48 |
46 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
4 |
7 |
12 |
19 |
28 |
42 |
50 |
55 |
48 |
35 |
33 |
37 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
235 |
270 |
316 |
413 |
544 |
660 |
776 |
906 |
960 |
1001 |
968 |
910 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
33 |
37 |
40 |
51 |
59 |
66 |
73 |
85 |
79 |
73 |
62 |
42 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
9 |
11 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
28 |
32 |
34 |
33 |
30 |
26 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
ALM |
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
2070 |
2080 |
2090 |
2100 |
|
|
|
|
Population |
Million |
1192 |
1519 |
1875 |
2241 |
2557 |
2791 |
2980 |
3089 |
3115 |
3064 |
2934 |
2727 |
|
|
|
|
GNP/GDP
(mex) |
Trillion US$ |
1,9 |
2,7 |
5,3 |
10,3 |
19,5 |
35,8 |
52,0 |
73,9 |
95,8 |
118,6 |
142,3 |
165,9 |
|
GNP/GDP
(ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) |
3,8 |
5,1 |
8,6 |
13,8 |
22,4 |
38,1 |
53,9 |
73,9 |
95,8 |
118,6 |
142,3 |
165,9 |
|
|
|
|
Final
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Non-commercial |
|
14 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Solids |
|
1 |
5 |
7 |
10 |
11 |
14 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Liquids |
|
17 |
27 |
50 |
68 |
98 |
122 |
153 |
180 |
196 |
175 |
144 |
100 |
|
|
Gas |
|
4 |
6 |
11 |
18 |
25 |
43 |
53 |
61 |
66 |
67 |
56 |
40 |
|
|
Electricity |
|
3 |
6 |
12 |
24 |
47 |
75 |
106 |
150 |
195 |
239 |
274 |
314 |
|
|
Others |
|
0 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
17 |
27 |
45 |
63 |
89 |
121 |
159 |
206 |
|
|
Total |
|
39 |
55 |
93 |
138 |
203 |
285 |
373 |
463 |
548 |
604 |
634 |
662 |
|
|
|
|
|
Primary
Energy |
EJ |
|
|
|
|
Coal |
|
5 |
7 |
14 |
22 |
35 |
46 |
44 |
41 |
53 |
74 |
76 |
83 |
|
|
Oil |
|
21 |
35 |
53 |
67 |
81 |
100 |
131 |
172 |
194 |
154 |
106 |
67 |
|
|
Gas |
|
8 |
14 |
26 |
49 |
88 |
128 |
150 |
163 |
168 |
148 |
131 |
110 |
|
|
Nuclear |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
10 |
18 |
28 |
40 |
61 |
83 |
101 |
118 |
|
|
Biomass |
|
14 |
15 |
22 |
30 |
41 |
53 |
72 |
91 |
124 |
176 |
207 |
213 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other Renewables |
2 |
3 |
10 |
18 |
27 |
48 |
90 |
148 |
215 |
298 |
377 |
480 |
|
|
Total |
|
49 |
74 |
125 |
190 |
283 |
394 |
514 |
656 |
815 |
932 |
999 |
1071 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
Resources Use |
ZJ |
|
|
|
Coal |
|
0,0 |
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,3 |
0,5 |
0,8 |
1,3 |
1,7 |
2,1 |
2,6 |
3,3 |
4,0 |
|
|
Oil |
|
0,0 |
0,3 |
0,6 |
1,1 |
1,8 |
2,6 |
3,6 |
4,9 |
6,7 |
8,6 |
10,1 |
11,2 |
|
|
Gas |
|
0,0 |
0,1 |
0,2 |
0,5 |
1,0 |
1,9 |
3,1 |
4,6 |
6,3 |
7,9 |
9,4 |
10,7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
GtC |
0,0 |
16,4 |
37,3 |
63,9 |
99,2 |
146,0 |
202,7 |
268,0 |
341,5 |
416,5 |
484,4 |
543,9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Carbon
Sequestraction |
GtC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Land Use |
|
Million ha |
|
Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run |
|
Cropland |
|
371 |
385 |
384 |
383 |
382 |
381 |
381 |
380 |
379 |
379 |
378 |
378 |
|
|
Grasslands |
|
1680 |
1673 |
1685 |
1695 |
1702 |
1708 |
1714 |
1718 |
1722 |
1726 |
1730 |
1733 |
|
|
Energy Biomass |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
90 |
165 |
240 |
282 |
324 |
333 |
308 |
284 |
|
|
Forest |
|
1745 |
1711 |
1690 |
1683 |
1680 |
1681 |
1682 |
1681 |
1680 |
1678 |
1676 |
1674 |
|
|
Others |
|
1684 |
1710 |
1720 |
1676 |
1625 |
1544 |
1463 |
1419 |
1374 |
1364 |
1387 |
1411 |
|
|
Total |
|
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
5480 |
|
|
|
|
Anthropogenic
Emissions (standardized) |
|
|
Fossil Fuel CO2 |
GtC |
0,72 |
1,01 |
1,76 |
2,61 |
3,84 |
5,09 |
5,93 |
6,86 |
7,63 |
7,18 |
6,27 |
5,53 |
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes
(MESSAGE data) |
|
Other CO2 |
GtC |
0,73 |
0,82 |
0,60 |
0,36 |
0,25 |
0,19 |
0,14 |
0,12 |
0,10 |
0,08 |
0,06 |
0,03 |
CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run) |
|
Total CO2 |
GtC |
1,45 |
1,83 |
2,36 |
2,96 |
4,09 |
5,28 |
6,07 |
6,98 |
7,73 |
7,26 |
6,32 |
5,56 |
|
|
CH4 total |
MtCH4 |
77 |
85 |
99 |
119 |
141 |
162 |
171 |
165 |
160 |
155 |
131 |
100 |
Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
N2O total |
MtN2O-N |
1,2 |
1,3 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,8 |
0,8 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,7 |
0,6 |
Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker
run |
|
SOx total |
MtS |
10,5 |
12,8 |
18,5 |
21,1 |
22,2 |
21,0 |
20,6 |
20,1 |
20,2 |
17,7 |
14,2 |
10,4 |
|
|
HFC |
MtC eq. |
0 |
2 |
15 |
39 |
81 |
139 |
184 |
205 |
210 |
210 |
206 |
196 |
|
|
PFC |
MtC eq. |
4 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
14 |
19 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
|
|
SF6 |
MtC eq. |
3 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
19 |
32 |
40 |
42 |
37 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
|
|
CO |
MtCO |
396 |
404 |
459 |
526 |
572 |
670 |
785 |
904 |
1069 |
1233 |
1353 |
1405 |
|
|
NMVOC |
Mt |
48 |
55 |
68 |
82 |
90 |
102 |
117 |
124 |
124 |
98 |
78 |
63 |
|
|
NOx |
MtN |
7 |
8 |
11 |
15 |
20 |
25 |
30 |
36 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
30 |
|
|
Emissions
correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM
A1 marker land-use data |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|